A 1-5 start has brought on panic and flashbacks to last season for Red Sox fans everywhere. Lester had a stellar first start but anytime Justin Verlander is on the mound it's ok to shrug your shoulders and just take loss, he's just that good. Beckett on the other hand was nothing short of horrendous. His command was embarrassing and not even Verlander could've survived that many pitches in the middle of the plate. Beckett needs to adapt to his decreased velocity and learn how to pitch around that. Schilling, Pedro and Nolan Ryan were all pitchers that could get by on pure stuff for the majority of their careers but has they got older they changed the way pitched so they could still be effective. It was only the first start of the season for Beckett, so let's take a deep breath, but this season should give us a great insight into whether or not Beckett can make the adjustments. Buchholz on the other hand had great stuff while he struggled with command. Hs threw a bunch of great curveballs and change ups but his fastball was very hittable. Felix Doubront, the 24 year old Venezuelan, turned in a solid start. He continued to struggle with pitch efficiency which is why the other pitchers will have to take on the responsibility of saving the bullpen.
The fifth starter, Daniel Bard, had an extremely encouraging start against Toronto. He tied a franchise record for swings and misses in a game with 18 (Beckett being the other pitcher), 9 each with his fastball and slider. The biggest concern, with having Bard in the rotation, has been and still is whether or not he can handle the work load. He is going to have to improve his change up or hitters will his fastball. According to Inside Edge, for his first 45 pitches his fastball averaged 96MPH, but by his 75th pitch he was only averaging 93MPH. There was a similar decline with his slider, he averaged 83MPH through his first 30 pitches but after, his slider decreased to 80MPH. Seeing such a significant drop off in velocity over the course of one start, so early in the season, is disturbing and a eye should be kept on it.
The bullpen has been the lightening rod for criticism amounts Sox fans and rightfully so. With Andrew Bailey out until July with a torn ulcer collateral ligament in the thumb on his pitching hand Alfredo Aceves was named as the closer. He was terrible in the Detroit series but looked very capable in the Red Sox only win. As presently constituted the bullpen should be at least league average and with the Sox great offense and good pitching they should at least win a spot in the wild card playoff game.
Random Thoughts:
-The Cincinati Reds are building a great, albeit expensive, foundation with the Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips extensions.
-Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder are going be as good or better than the Manny/Ortiz combo that anchored the Red Sox line up for 2 World Series championships.
-The Ryan Howard contract is going to ruin the long term success of the Phillies and may cause them to lose Cole Hammels at the end of the season.
-Cole Hammels' father grew up in Southie... I'm not saying it but it's something to keep in mind if contract talks break down with the Phillies. The Red Sox have around $110-$115mil committed to next season and will need a 3B, RF, DH, bullpen guys and some bench players. They have guys in AAA like Will Middlebrooks 3B, Jose Iglesias SS, Ryan Kalish RF and Ryan Lavarnway C/DH who could all contribute as soon as this year. All of those guys are cheap replacements for players with expiring contracts (Ortiz DH $14mil, Youkilis 3B $12.25mil, Cody Ross RF $3mil, Bobby Jenks RP $6mil). Which means the Red Sox could very well have a payroll around $130mil with most of their roster solidified. If they don't win the World Series this season the owners could be pressured by fans to go out and lock down a big time free agent in the mold of Cole Hamels.
Thursday, April 12, 2012
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
No Way Jose
Dear Bobby V and Boston Sports Media,
Damn it you bastards did it again. I tried not to get sucked into it this time but you've succeeded and here we are, I hope you're happy. Stop lobbying for Jose Iglesias to start the season in Boston, he's not ready. Let me repeat myself: Jose Iglesias is not ready to play in the Majors he needs more time in AAA. All last season the same media members and talk show callers that were ripping Crawford for being terrible offensively are now clamoring for a 22 year old with only 760 professional at bats and a .240 avg hit AL East pitching from day 1. Iglesias will never hit for power or a high average his value lies solely in his defense. Iglesias is a defensive wizard, scouts grade a players tools (throwing, running, fielding, hitting for average and hitting for power) on 20-80 scale with a 50 being the MLB average and 80 being the elite of the elite. The rarest tool to get an 80 grade is shortstop defense and Iglesias has it. His bat on the other hand lags far behind his glove and while he has shown a better approach this spring he is potentially too valuable to risk having him start the season in Boston. Calling Iglesias up before he's ready could permanently damage his confidence and when then happens you can lose a player forever regardless of their physical ability (see Craig Hansen).
Starting in Boston
Pros: He hits at least the bare minimum needed for him to not be a detriment and the Iglesias era begins and we all go back to complaining about John Henry's soccer team.
Cons: He struggles mightily, his confidence is crippled and he gets sent down to AAA and his development is set back for months or maybe even a year.
Starting in AAA
Pros: He continues to develop his bat and his confidence at the plate until he gets called up when he's ready or because of injury.
Cons: He proves right out of the gate he was ready anyway and then he gets called up brimming with the confidence of his success and we miss out on maybe a month of his defense.
After weighing the pros and cons of each option it's very clear the Red Sox could lose way more than they could gain by having Iglesias start in Boston, whereas having him start in AAA there's very little downside because Mike Aviles is more than capable of being an average overall shortstop. I hope this letter has convinced you to take a deep breath and have patience with the kid until he's ready.
Sincerely,
Future Jose Iglesias
P.S. If Iglesias does refer to himself in the 3rd person he's probably so confident and cocky anyway he won't get discouraged by a bad start at the plate and the Sox should have him start in Boston
Damn it you bastards did it again. I tried not to get sucked into it this time but you've succeeded and here we are, I hope you're happy. Stop lobbying for Jose Iglesias to start the season in Boston, he's not ready. Let me repeat myself: Jose Iglesias is not ready to play in the Majors he needs more time in AAA. All last season the same media members and talk show callers that were ripping Crawford for being terrible offensively are now clamoring for a 22 year old with only 760 professional at bats and a .240 avg hit AL East pitching from day 1. Iglesias will never hit for power or a high average his value lies solely in his defense. Iglesias is a defensive wizard, scouts grade a players tools (throwing, running, fielding, hitting for average and hitting for power) on 20-80 scale with a 50 being the MLB average and 80 being the elite of the elite. The rarest tool to get an 80 grade is shortstop defense and Iglesias has it. His bat on the other hand lags far behind his glove and while he has shown a better approach this spring he is potentially too valuable to risk having him start the season in Boston. Calling Iglesias up before he's ready could permanently damage his confidence and when then happens you can lose a player forever regardless of their physical ability (see Craig Hansen).
Starting in Boston
Pros: He hits at least the bare minimum needed for him to not be a detriment and the Iglesias era begins and we all go back to complaining about John Henry's soccer team.
Cons: He struggles mightily, his confidence is crippled and he gets sent down to AAA and his development is set back for months or maybe even a year.
Starting in AAA
Pros: He continues to develop his bat and his confidence at the plate until he gets called up when he's ready or because of injury.
Cons: He proves right out of the gate he was ready anyway and then he gets called up brimming with the confidence of his success and we miss out on maybe a month of his defense.
After weighing the pros and cons of each option it's very clear the Red Sox could lose way more than they could gain by having Iglesias start in Boston, whereas having him start in AAA there's very little downside because Mike Aviles is more than capable of being an average overall shortstop. I hope this letter has convinced you to take a deep breath and have patience with the kid until he's ready.
Sincerely,
Future Jose Iglesias
P.S. If Iglesias does refer to himself in the 3rd person he's probably so confident and cocky anyway he won't get discouraged by a bad start at the plate and the Sox should have him start in Boston
The Traveling Bard
To start or not to start? It's an easy question to answer with respect to Daniel Bard; KEEP HIM IN THE BULLPEN! Moving young players from the bullpen to the rotation is sketchy business as is but in Bard's case it could be disastrous. We all saw this first hand with Joba Chamberlain. As you all remember Joba came up with the Yankees in 2007 and dominated out of the bullpen, then the 'Joba Rules' kicked in. The Yankees attempted to protect his arm by having him begin the season as a starter then move him to the bullpen to limit his innings. In 2008 it was successful but since then the wheels have fallen off. Joba has struggled with consistency, overall effectiveness and injuries since then. All of these issues can be attributed either directly or indirectly to his fluctuating innings totals and his change in role. It's been well documented that Bard struggled greatly in his final season as a starter while he was in the minors; 6.42 ERA, 61.2 IP, 55 HITS, 56 BB, 38 Ks. For those of you who aren't partial to statistics those numbers make Lackey's 2011 season look palatable and Bard did that in A ball not the majors.
After that horrendous season the Red Sox organization lowered his arm slot slightly and transitioned him to the bullpen where he has flourished at every level. Bard has never had great control, before or after his mechanics were altered. Minor control problems in the bullpen turn into huge ones in the rotation, walks lead to runs, runs lead to long innings which leads to short outings which leaves you with a depleted and vulnerable bullpen. Daisuke round 2 anyone? Bard is most valuable to the Red Sox as Andrew Bailey's set up man with Mark Melancon. Bard was clearly overworked and burnt out last September, Melancon will be the perfect complement to him as a 7th inning guy and set up man when he needs a night off. The bullpen, baring injuries, should be one of the best in the AL with Bard but without him the quality depth could become a major flaw of this team.
The original idea for Bard to become a starter came from Lucchino, not Cherrington, not Epstein, not someone in baseball operations, it came from a businessman, that alone should be an indicator on why it's bad idea. You all know I'm one to tell you "I told you so" as I did with calling out A-Gon early last summer, so when Bard winds up in bullpen either before the season starts or for the second half after he bombs in the rotation expect another "I told you so."
After that horrendous season the Red Sox organization lowered his arm slot slightly and transitioned him to the bullpen where he has flourished at every level. Bard has never had great control, before or after his mechanics were altered. Minor control problems in the bullpen turn into huge ones in the rotation, walks lead to runs, runs lead to long innings which leads to short outings which leaves you with a depleted and vulnerable bullpen. Daisuke round 2 anyone? Bard is most valuable to the Red Sox as Andrew Bailey's set up man with Mark Melancon. Bard was clearly overworked and burnt out last September, Melancon will be the perfect complement to him as a 7th inning guy and set up man when he needs a night off. The bullpen, baring injuries, should be one of the best in the AL with Bard but without him the quality depth could become a major flaw of this team.
The original idea for Bard to become a starter came from Lucchino, not Cherrington, not Epstein, not someone in baseball operations, it came from a businessman, that alone should be an indicator on why it's bad idea. You all know I'm one to tell you "I told you so" as I did with calling out A-Gon early last summer, so when Bard winds up in bullpen either before the season starts or for the second half after he bombs in the rotation expect another "I told you so."
Friday, February 17, 2012
The Ressurection Part Two: The Starting Pitchers
The pitching staff became public enemy number one after the September collapse. Poor results and the fried chicken/beer drinking lead to this but that was last year and it's time to move on to the 2012 pitching staff.
Jon Lester is still the de-facto 'ace' of the staff. I say de-facto because because there's only only a handful of true number one, elite pitchers right now (in terms of pure stuff and reliable dominance): Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Cliff Lee, Jered Weaver and Cole Hamels. The next tier of guys (can put up the numbers of a true ace on any given year but it's not the norm for them) primarily consists of: Jon Lester, CC Sabathia, Matt Cain, Adam Wainwright, James Sheilds and Steven Strasburg if he's healthly. That being said Lester should have his standard season 200 IP, ERA in the low 3s and about 8 K/IP. Those stats shouldn't be understated because there is something to be said for a good reliable start every fifth day.
Josh Beckett, the apparent ring leader of the chicken and beer crew, needs to have a big season if the Sox plan on making any kind of late season run. By the end of 2011 he was fat and out of shape. For Beckett to have a big season he needs to be in shape and in order to be in shape he needs someone to ride his ass all season. Enter Bobby Valentine. Bobby V and Beckett's relationship will be dissected all season and will probably go one of two ways: Beckett will buy in and put together a good season and they'll live happily ever after or Beckett will butt heads with Bobby V the clubhouse will be dragged down and Ben Cherrington will have a much higher draft pick in 2013 than he was hoping for. Let's all hope that Beckett isn't as stubborn and childish as most of us think he might be.
Clay Buchholz lost his 2011 season to yet another misdiagnoses by the medical staff (see Ellsbury, Jacoby 2010), who have since been replaced, with multiple stress fractures in his back. While his numbers regressed from 2.33 ERA he had in 2010 before the injury he was getting better with every start showing improvement in both K/9 and BB/9. There are major questions marks following Buchholz in the rotation which is why I'm going to give Buchholz rotation's make or break tag. Yes Beckett will need to be good if the Sox plan on doing damage in October but with the improvements of the AL (Pujols to the Angles and Fielder to the Tigers) the Red Sox need a true ace and Buchholz is the only one who has the 'stuff' to become one. Buchholz has a plus fastball, plus cutter, plus to plus plus curveball, a fringy rarely used slider and a wipeout plus plus circle change that is as good as any in the game. If Buchholz can put together a 32 start 190+ innings and 7.5K/9 he won't be a true ace just yet but with the quality of his stuff his peripheral numbers should be 'ace-like'. If he can stay healthy for a full season this could be the season we see the first true ace since Pedro (take a deep breath I'm not saying Buchholz is as good as Pedro). On to the black hole...
The forth and fifth starters right now are a mess. Spring training will be the ultimate decider but right now the candidates are as follows: Alfredo Aceves, Andrew Miller, Felix Doubront, Stolmy Pimentel, Junichi Tazawa and Daisuke Matsuzaka after the all star break when he returns from Tommy John surgery (Daniel Bard will be in the bullpen this season and will be covered in the next post). This is a patch work group at best. For this group to have success the offense is going to have to carry them. Getting a collective ERA from this group in the low 5s should be the goal due to their lack of overall talent and their past results.
As it stands now the starting pitching is loaded with questions with only one reliable pitcher, Jon Lester. If Beckett and Buchholz can't preform up to their abilities this team is doomed to mediocrity.
Part Three: The Bullpen i
Jon Lester is still the de-facto 'ace' of the staff. I say de-facto because because there's only only a handful of true number one, elite pitchers right now (in terms of pure stuff and reliable dominance): Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Cliff Lee, Jered Weaver and Cole Hamels. The next tier of guys (can put up the numbers of a true ace on any given year but it's not the norm for them) primarily consists of: Jon Lester, CC Sabathia, Matt Cain, Adam Wainwright, James Sheilds and Steven Strasburg if he's healthly. That being said Lester should have his standard season 200 IP, ERA in the low 3s and about 8 K/IP. Those stats shouldn't be understated because there is something to be said for a good reliable start every fifth day.
Josh Beckett, the apparent ring leader of the chicken and beer crew, needs to have a big season if the Sox plan on making any kind of late season run. By the end of 2011 he was fat and out of shape. For Beckett to have a big season he needs to be in shape and in order to be in shape he needs someone to ride his ass all season. Enter Bobby Valentine. Bobby V and Beckett's relationship will be dissected all season and will probably go one of two ways: Beckett will buy in and put together a good season and they'll live happily ever after or Beckett will butt heads with Bobby V the clubhouse will be dragged down and Ben Cherrington will have a much higher draft pick in 2013 than he was hoping for. Let's all hope that Beckett isn't as stubborn and childish as most of us think he might be.
Clay Buchholz lost his 2011 season to yet another misdiagnoses by the medical staff (see Ellsbury, Jacoby 2010), who have since been replaced, with multiple stress fractures in his back. While his numbers regressed from 2.33 ERA he had in 2010 before the injury he was getting better with every start showing improvement in both K/9 and BB/9. There are major questions marks following Buchholz in the rotation which is why I'm going to give Buchholz rotation's make or break tag. Yes Beckett will need to be good if the Sox plan on doing damage in October but with the improvements of the AL (Pujols to the Angles and Fielder to the Tigers) the Red Sox need a true ace and Buchholz is the only one who has the 'stuff' to become one. Buchholz has a plus fastball, plus cutter, plus to plus plus curveball, a fringy rarely used slider and a wipeout plus plus circle change that is as good as any in the game. If Buchholz can put together a 32 start 190+ innings and 7.5K/9 he won't be a true ace just yet but with the quality of his stuff his peripheral numbers should be 'ace-like'. If he can stay healthy for a full season this could be the season we see the first true ace since Pedro (take a deep breath I'm not saying Buchholz is as good as Pedro). On to the black hole...
The forth and fifth starters right now are a mess. Spring training will be the ultimate decider but right now the candidates are as follows: Alfredo Aceves, Andrew Miller, Felix Doubront, Stolmy Pimentel, Junichi Tazawa and Daisuke Matsuzaka after the all star break when he returns from Tommy John surgery (Daniel Bard will be in the bullpen this season and will be covered in the next post). This is a patch work group at best. For this group to have success the offense is going to have to carry them. Getting a collective ERA from this group in the low 5s should be the goal due to their lack of overall talent and their past results.
As it stands now the starting pitching is loaded with questions with only one reliable pitcher, Jon Lester. If Beckett and Buchholz can't preform up to their abilities this team is doomed to mediocrity.
Part Three: The Bullpen i
Sunday, January 29, 2012
The Resurrection Part 1
Well loyal readers it's been a while since I've imparted my knowledge and opinions of all things Red Sox and baseball on you. I shouldn't have left so abruptly but I swear I was really busy but I'm back now and I promise I'll treat you better this time. First things first, I don't know where my 24 page views from Russia came from but my best guess is a combination of Alexander Ovechkin, Mikhail Prokhorov and Vladimir Putin as research for their eventual invasion of our great nation.
But now to business. As we all know our beloved Red Sox closed out August on pace for 100 wins and a postseason run until it came crashing down in a waterfall of beer, fried chicken, lack of pride and a slew of issues relating to Francona having to play out the final year of his contract. The primary reason for the collapse as we all know was a horrendous pitching staff that was plagued by poor conditioning. Most people blamed the Lackey, Beckett and Lester drinking buddies for the pitching staff woes but that was just one part of it. In spring training everyone, including myself, was talking about a 100 win season and when it became apparent in August that it was a real possibility many of the players started reading the press clippings and took their foot off the gas pedal. This is where the Francona contract comes into play. A manager's job is to maintain a good clubhouse and don't fuck up the starting rotation or bullpen. With a lot of players signed to long term deals and a growing feeling that Francona wouldn't be back he lost credibility within the clubhouse which gave him no chance to rectify the rapidly detieriating situation. But we all need to remember it comes back to the players not taking pride in their work and being a team that didn't have any fight. Three players have earned the right to be completely absolved from accusations of trying to coast into the playoffs: Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and Marco Scutaro. Those three players played hard from game 1 through 162.
The offseason came amid turmoil with most players speechless except Adrian Gonzalez who knew the real reason our Sox didn't make the post season... It wasn't in God's plan. Agon's attitude epitomized the end of the season collapse: no accountability and a losers mentality. Let's pause for a moment while I pat myself on the back for being right that Agon just didn't seem like a winner or true Red Sox deep down (http://boscriley.blogspot.com/2011/05/from-heart-of-fan.html). With the offseason came a major overhaul in the front office. Theo left for Cubs, Francona was sent packing for losing control of the players, long time Theo protege Ben Cherrington took over as GM and Bobby Valentine took over as manager for Tito. Cherrington should do a good job and there should be a good amount of continuity unless Lucchino decides to flex his Baseball Ops muscles or John Henry tightens his purse strings. Bobby V is a bit of a wild card. He is definitely closer to Rex Ryan than Belichick when it comes to the media which I promise you will become tiresome very quickly. Baseball managers is have the least amount of impact on games so all Valentine has to do is keep the pitch staff motivated and in shape. Part 2 is coming soon and will cover personnel moves and a look forward to spring training.
But now to business. As we all know our beloved Red Sox closed out August on pace for 100 wins and a postseason run until it came crashing down in a waterfall of beer, fried chicken, lack of pride and a slew of issues relating to Francona having to play out the final year of his contract. The primary reason for the collapse as we all know was a horrendous pitching staff that was plagued by poor conditioning. Most people blamed the Lackey, Beckett and Lester drinking buddies for the pitching staff woes but that was just one part of it. In spring training everyone, including myself, was talking about a 100 win season and when it became apparent in August that it was a real possibility many of the players started reading the press clippings and took their foot off the gas pedal. This is where the Francona contract comes into play. A manager's job is to maintain a good clubhouse and don't fuck up the starting rotation or bullpen. With a lot of players signed to long term deals and a growing feeling that Francona wouldn't be back he lost credibility within the clubhouse which gave him no chance to rectify the rapidly detieriating situation. But we all need to remember it comes back to the players not taking pride in their work and being a team that didn't have any fight. Three players have earned the right to be completely absolved from accusations of trying to coast into the playoffs: Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and Marco Scutaro. Those three players played hard from game 1 through 162.
The offseason came amid turmoil with most players speechless except Adrian Gonzalez who knew the real reason our Sox didn't make the post season... It wasn't in God's plan. Agon's attitude epitomized the end of the season collapse: no accountability and a losers mentality. Let's pause for a moment while I pat myself on the back for being right that Agon just didn't seem like a winner or true Red Sox deep down (http://boscriley.blogspot.com/2011/05/from-heart-of-fan.html). With the offseason came a major overhaul in the front office. Theo left for Cubs, Francona was sent packing for losing control of the players, long time Theo protege Ben Cherrington took over as GM and Bobby Valentine took over as manager for Tito. Cherrington should do a good job and there should be a good amount of continuity unless Lucchino decides to flex his Baseball Ops muscles or John Henry tightens his purse strings. Bobby V is a bit of a wild card. He is definitely closer to Rex Ryan than Belichick when it comes to the media which I promise you will become tiresome very quickly. Baseball managers is have the least amount of impact on games so all Valentine has to do is keep the pitch staff motivated and in shape. Part 2 is coming soon and will cover personnel moves and a look forward to spring training.
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