A 1-5 start has brought on panic and flashbacks to last season for Red Sox fans everywhere. Lester had a stellar first start but anytime Justin Verlander is on the mound it's ok to shrug your shoulders and just take loss, he's just that good. Beckett on the other hand was nothing short of horrendous. His command was embarrassing and not even Verlander could've survived that many pitches in the middle of the plate. Beckett needs to adapt to his decreased velocity and learn how to pitch around that. Schilling, Pedro and Nolan Ryan were all pitchers that could get by on pure stuff for the majority of their careers but has they got older they changed the way pitched so they could still be effective. It was only the first start of the season for Beckett, so let's take a deep breath, but this season should give us a great insight into whether or not Beckett can make the adjustments. Buchholz on the other hand had great stuff while he struggled with command. Hs threw a bunch of great curveballs and change ups but his fastball was very hittable. Felix Doubront, the 24 year old Venezuelan, turned in a solid start. He continued to struggle with pitch efficiency which is why the other pitchers will have to take on the responsibility of saving the bullpen.
The fifth starter, Daniel Bard, had an extremely encouraging start against Toronto. He tied a franchise record for swings and misses in a game with 18 (Beckett being the other pitcher), 9 each with his fastball and slider. The biggest concern, with having Bard in the rotation, has been and still is whether or not he can handle the work load. He is going to have to improve his change up or hitters will his fastball. According to Inside Edge, for his first 45 pitches his fastball averaged 96MPH, but by his 75th pitch he was only averaging 93MPH. There was a similar decline with his slider, he averaged 83MPH through his first 30 pitches but after, his slider decreased to 80MPH. Seeing such a significant drop off in velocity over the course of one start, so early in the season, is disturbing and a eye should be kept on it.
The bullpen has been the lightening rod for criticism amounts Sox fans and rightfully so. With Andrew Bailey out until July with a torn ulcer collateral ligament in the thumb on his pitching hand Alfredo Aceves was named as the closer. He was terrible in the Detroit series but looked very capable in the Red Sox only win. As presently constituted the bullpen should be at least league average and with the Sox great offense and good pitching they should at least win a spot in the wild card playoff game.
Random Thoughts:
-The Cincinati Reds are building a great, albeit expensive, foundation with the Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips extensions.
-Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder are going be as good or better than the Manny/Ortiz combo that anchored the Red Sox line up for 2 World Series championships.
-The Ryan Howard contract is going to ruin the long term success of the Phillies and may cause them to lose Cole Hammels at the end of the season.
-Cole Hammels' father grew up in Southie... I'm not saying it but it's something to keep in mind if contract talks break down with the Phillies. The Red Sox have around $110-$115mil committed to next season and will need a 3B, RF, DH, bullpen guys and some bench players. They have guys in AAA like Will Middlebrooks 3B, Jose Iglesias SS, Ryan Kalish RF and Ryan Lavarnway C/DH who could all contribute as soon as this year. All of those guys are cheap replacements for players with expiring contracts (Ortiz DH $14mil, Youkilis 3B $12.25mil, Cody Ross RF $3mil, Bobby Jenks RP $6mil). Which means the Red Sox could very well have a payroll around $130mil with most of their roster solidified. If they don't win the World Series this season the owners could be pressured by fans to go out and lock down a big time free agent in the mold of Cole Hamels.
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