From the Heart of a Fan

I originally started this blog to provide Red Sox fans with a source of information to dominate the water cooler. Over the past few weeks I've been captivated by Bruins' run at Lord Stanley's Cup, so admittedly I've missed more than a few Sox games. During my hiatus from this blog you readers have been kind enough to continue to check in from time to time which has pushed me over 1,000 views. So thank you. The motivation for this article came from a brief and seemingly insignificant comment from my father, "I love Adrian Gonzalez, that guy is just so much smarter than everyone he faces."

Clearly a bold statement in itself but it got me thinking, 'Why haven't I embraced Adrian Gonzalez like most Red Sox fans?' Now please don't jump to conclusions, the guy is a top 3 hitter in the MLB (Pujols and Miggy Cabrera right with him) plays a very good 1B and by all accounts is one of the stand up guys who will do anything for a charity. I cannot emphasize this enough. My inability to embrace Adrian as a Red Sox baffles me as much as it does you, and no this isn't some inflated sense of entitlement that Yankee fans had toward Alex Rodriguez, "If he hasn't won us a ring he's not a real Yankee." The second possibility is because we traded for him instead of drafting and developing him. False. Everyone who knows me as a baseball fan knows I love prospects and the whole process that goes with them. Yes we traded Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo and Reymond Fuentes but lets face if this was 2006 it may have costed Bard, Ellsbury and/or Pedroia. I was not enamored with any of those guys so any emotional attachment is non existent and therefore not relevant.

As stated before in my previous posts, Clay Buchholz is my favorite player and I believe that by the end of the 2012 season he will be in consideration for one of the top 5 pitchers in the MLB. This is a product of me following him from the moment he got drafted. However, Pedro Martinez is without a doubt my favorite Red Sox player of all time, and yes we acquired him in a trade (sorry Fisk, Doerr, Esposito, Rice, Lynn and the great Teddy Ballgame but if I didn't see you play you can't get on my list). A-Gon has had monster home runs, walk off hits, and at bats that any baseball analyst would be lying is they said they didn't appreciate, but for some reason as a fan I'm almost indifferent when he comes to plate. He doesn't give me that feeling that Manny elicited of 'I could see something special I'll remember forever' every time he steps to the plate, or watching Nomar knowing that every time he made contact it was going to be the hardest ball I ever saw hit.

I hope you don't view this as a knock on Adrian Gonzalez in any form. The guy is an incredibly talented player and damn good person too, but I ask you to look deep inside your fan hood and ask yourself 'Why I am I a fan of (player x).' The relationship between a fan and any player is complicated, irrational and often times fleeting and sporadic. Choosing a player you like is like trying to choose your favorite food: you don't choose it, you just like it more everything else.

That Creaking Sound

Does everyone hear that creaking sound? It's the frame on the Red Sox bandwagon bending as all the fans who were on the Zakim Bridge two weeks ago, after the Sox dropped the first 2 of a 3 game series to the Rays, jump back on. As we all know the Red Sox cancelled the 3rd game of the series roughly 4 hours before the first pitch was scheduled to be thrown. Yes you read that correctly 4 hours before the first pitch. Unless there the danger that fans might die it's standard procedure to postpone canceling the game as long as possible to get fans in the stadium to buy food and souvenirs. It was clear the Red Sox had no intention of playing the 3rd game, all they wanted to do was to have 2 days off (there was an off day before the start of the Toronto series) to get their heads right before they dug themselves a hole they couldn't get out of. Since the start of the Toronto series the Red Sox are 9-2 and the pitching staff hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in the last 5 games (1.53 ERA). Buchholz is the only starter that hasn't turned in a quality start (6 innings 3 runs or less) this season but that could very well change when he opens the series in Baltimore on Tuesday. We've now seen 15 combined shutout innings from Daisuke and Lackey which, given the way the common fan and the media view them, is nothing short of a miracle.

Carl Crawford finally hit his first homerun in a Red Sox uniform and the other struggling members of the offense seems to be slowly working their way back to respectability. Ellsbury hit .375 during the 4 game sweep of the Angels, Youkilis hit .333 and Salty has barely been playing recently. Pitching wins championships and the Red Sox made the decision that until Salty improves his game calling and gains the pitching staff's trust Varitek will continue to catch the majority of their games. If Salty can't gain the pitching staff's trust it won't be long before Theo starts scouring the trade market because at the moment there's no replacement ready in the minors.

Questions to keep an eye on over the next week:

1. Can Beckett, Daisuke and Lackey maintain their recent dominance or will they regress?
2. Can Carl Crawford build off the final Angels game and become the game changing offensive player the Red Sox paid for? Where will he hit in the order once he does?
3. How much playing time does Salty get and who is the starter?
4. Will Jed Lowrie continue to challenge the belief that he is in fact human?
5. Will Buchholz have a breakout start against the team he no hit back in '07?
6. How many more starts will Anthony Ranaudo have at Low A before he's promoted (.46 ERA, 29.2 IP, 23 Ks, 8 BB, 10 H, 1 HR)?

The Right Direction

The second time through the rotation showed us two great starts two bad ones and then the massive dumb by Daisuke that Fenway cleaning crew is still cleaning up. After their 0-5 start the Red Sox turned to their ace, Jon Lester, to stop the skid and hopefully break his trend of poor pitching in April in the rubber match versus the Indians. Well all know Cleveland is a terrible team (more proof that analyzing a team's record before the first 40 games of the season is a waste of time and energy) and Lester finally made their offense live up that reputation tossing 7 shutout innings with 9 Ks. His fastball velocity was still 91-93 instead of the 94-96 we're used to seeing, but it's still early in the season and over his next couple starts we should see an increase as his he gets his arm strength back. Unfortunately for Lester the offense continued to struggle and the Red Sox went back to Boston to start a 3 game series with an 0-6 record.

Lackey's box score wasn't good and he'll need to improve his command but in a hitter friendly park, such as Fenway, against an offensive team like the Yankees, 5 innings 6 runs and 2 Ks isn't the worst thing that can happen. Don't get me wrong Lackey has struggled mightily with his command this year and his 91MPH fastball may wind up being in the high 80s by the end of his contract. The offense finally showed up and knocked Phil Hughes around for 5 runs in the 2nd inning alone. Hughes struggled with his velocity and command during spring training and it has clearly carried over to the regular season. His fastball velocity is currently at 86-88 MPH. Hughes has a a good curveball and solid change up but they become moot when his fastball is slow and hittable. Jenks, Bard and Papelbon came in and preformed up to their potential and slammed the door to get the Red Sox first win of the season. Papelbon was once again lights out throwing hit fastball at 94-95, his splitter at 87-90 and his slider at 82-84 all with great control. If he continues to throw like he has in his first 3 outings he will solidify himself as a type A free agent and will net the Red Sox a first round pick and a supplemental first round pick in the 2012 draft.

Buchholz went into his second start looking to achieve what Lester did against the Indians, break his trend of struggling in April. Unfortunately he wasn't successful and he struggled in 3.2 innings,  4 earned runs, 2 Ks and gave up another homerun. Buchholz has already given up 5 homeruns compared to the 9 he gave up all of last season. Right now his fastball velocity is similar to Lester's, he's sitting 91-93 when he's usually at 94-96. Throughout Buchholz's career he has gotten stronger as the season has gone on and his velocity as increased simultaneously. Ivan Nova controlled the Red Sox line up and worked his way out of trouble as the Red Sox struggled to push runners across the plate. On sunday the Red Sox announced that Buchholz signed a 4 year $30M contract with two club options. Once again Theo has locked up a young talented player to a team friendly deal with a club option at the end. This is the first time there has been 2 club options. The deal is very similar to to the one Lester signed before last year and with good reason. If you compare the two players at same point in their career when they signed their respective contracts they are almost exactly the same. K/9, BB/9, IP, HR/9, FIP (pitching stat that only factors in what a pitcher can control HRs walks Ks per inning pitched) are extremely similar while Buchholz has a noticeably better BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and a slightly better ERA.

In the rubber match Beckett matched up against Yankees' ace CC Sabathia and Beckett stole the show. Beckett struck out 10 Yankees over 8 shutout innings. This is the Beckett that Theo signed to a four year $68M deal at the beginning of last season. If Beckett can return to his 2007 form, like he did on Sunday, the Red Sox will be able to go toe to toe with the Phillies if both teams meet in the World Series. The offense was good but not great on Sunday they left a lot of runners on base and in scoring position and failed put a nail in the Yankees coffin early. The amount of runners LOB (left on base) has been a topic of discussion amongst Red Sox fans recently and it's not without merit but its being blown out of proportion. The Red Sox will always leave a lot of runners on base because they are one of the best teams at getting on base, a better representation of their success with runners on base is how many runners they drive in per baserunner. More great stuff from Papelbon he's prime for a 40+ save season.

I won't waste much time on Daisuke's start against the Rays, he was flat out terrible. He left all his pitches up in the zone and right over the plate. After games like this you need to chalk it up a bad start and move on to the next one. The one thing this does bring up is whether or not Theo is will to trade Daisuke and will Daisuke waive his no trade clause. I for one don't believe this will happen because if Daisuke is traded the Red Sox won't get a starter of equal or greater value do they will need to dip into their starting depth, Doubront Aceves or Wakefield which means if one more starter goes down the Red Sox could be in much more trouble than with Daisuke on the mound.

Any and all questions or request should be sent to strikeoneblog@gmail.com or on twitter @strikeoneblog.

Worst Case Scenario

Alright folks the worst case scenario has happened. The Red Sox are 0-5 after being swept by Texas in the opening series then dropping the first 2 games to Cleveland. I was planning on waiting until there was something positive to write about but we've gone through the rotation once so now seems like as good a time as any. First and foremost everyone take a deep breath and count to ten (which is not the same as ten deep breaths Farva) then slowly step back off the ledge of the Zakim Bridge and go home.

Lester and Lackey continued their April struggles in their respective first starts. For the first time since 4/8/2008, against the Tigers, Lester failed to record a strikeout. He fastball was sitting in the low 90s instead of his normal 94-96. His stuff wasn't sharp and his location was sporadic, a recipe for ineffectiveness. As you'll notice throughout this article there will be a running theme of 'he just didn't play well'. Same goes for Lackey, his velocity was down and his location was off, his cut fastball down the middle of the plate on Nelson Cruz's homerun sums up his outting pretty well. He was also on the hook for a lot more pitches and runs after Ellsbury failed to catch the line drive in right center, which didn't help. Buchholz had arguably the best start out of any of the pitchers. He went into the 7th inning and only gave up 5 hits, 4 of which were solo homeruns. As I said in my first post, Long Wait To April 1st, Buchholz's ability to become a true shutdown ace, and one of the best pitchers in the MLB, was going to hinge on whether or not he could regain the feel for his elite curveball and dominate with it. Throughout his start Buchholz showed a willingness throw his curveball in many different counts and for strikes, a sign of good things to come. Beckett was far from stellar but was probably the third best starter the Red Sox have had so far. His change-up was the best we've seen since when he made a run at the Cy Young in 2007. Beckett's stuff was much better than we've seen in recent years and, like every other pitcher on our staff, if he can improve his control he should be a perfectly suitable starter. Daisuke was the same frustrating pitcher we've all gotten used to over the past couple seasons for the first 2+ innings. Then it seemed like he settled down and started to pitch to contact a bit more. If it weren't for the botched double play by Varitek, who should've tagged the running because the force out was not in play, Daisuke may have made it into the 6th inning. The bullpen has been hit or miss depending on the night and pitcher, but Papelbon has shown a much improved willingness to throw his slider and splitter in any count.

The hitters have just been flat out awful. They haven't worked the count, made smart base running decisions or punished opposing pitchers for making mistakes. Adrian Gonzalez has looked the best of all hitters so far. He has shown the power and ability to hit to all fields while also working deep into the count but even he has preformed below his talent. Their biggest problem is that they're pressing too much and they have no command of the strike zone. If the hitters are going to break out their slump they need to settle down, start working the count and get the starter out of the game early.

Through the first 5 games of the season the Red Sox have played horribly, there's no denying that. The fortunate part is that this team is not Houston Astros, the Red Sox are way too talented to not break out this and establish themselves as a force to be reckoned with. While on WEEI's Dennis and Callahan show this morning Curt Schilling said "I still believe they are going to be a good team, but they don't have a common foe, and pretty soon it's going to be getting booed on Opening Day, or the media just basically saying these guys suck, and they're going to have a 'let's circle the wagons to spite these guys' and  they don't have that." I couldn't have said it better and that common enemy will be arriving in Boston early tomorrow morning in the form of the New York Yankees. This is a team of proud, talented and confident players and doubting them could prove to be the waking of the sleeping giant.

Things to watch during the Yankee series:

• Buchholz's use of his curveball. How sharp does it look? Is he leaving it up in the zone? Can he throw strikes with it? Is he throwing in any count or only when he's ahead?
• Lackey. Can he through the Yankees line up enough times to not decimate the bullpen (ie. 6+ innings)?
• Beckett. See Lackey.
• Can the bullpen hold leads and shut the door in the 9th inning?
• Will the hitters show patience at the plate and knock the Yankees starters out early in the game?

Any questions and topic requests should be sent to strikeoneblog@gmail.com

Game Notes: Tigers @ Yankees 3/31

As I promised I will touch on other teams during the season so this is the first installment of the 'Game Notes' series. The format is subject to change but this seemed like a logical place to start; a running list of notes of observations followed by a wrap up. Without further ado...

Nice diving catch by granderson on rhymes Top 1

1-2-3 for sabathia stuff looks good FB sitting at 94 MPH

Verlander K on 96 FB sitting at 94-95 MPH Bot 1

Nasty hook to jeter 78 MPH strike looking

Slider 84 MPH misses

84 MPH change up / splitter looks like a 2 seamer

verlander 2 seamer movement is disgusting

walks arod missing strike zone to 3B on 2FB

better control to 1B side tailing back into the strike zone

Miguel Cabrera continues to hit sabathia Top 2

Jeter’s defense continues to underwhelm

Sabathia’s making mistakes but is staying low in the zone limiting the opportunity for extra base hits

Sabathia misses high sac fly scores run

Bases loaded no out sabathia only allows one run (sac fly to CF line out to 2B and K)

Verlander relying heavily on change up vs LHH so far so good Bot 2

Sabathia cruising 2 more Ks Top 3

Great sack bunt by gardner Bot 3

Granderson’s at bat song is ‘Friday’

Verlander’s control not there right now

Letter high FB over heart of the plate leads to Teixiera 3 run bomb

Inge rbi single sabathia missed inside Top 4

Sabathia battles back for the K with runner one 3B

Great diving catch by rayburn to rob martin of a hit in shallow left center Bot 5

Verlander curveball dialed in great movement and hitting the strike zone

Nice 2B by igne pulled his hands in and drove it into the gap Top 6

Arod broke up a streak of 9 straight by verlander who missed with a fastball high Bot 6

Verlander done 114 pitches looked great at times poor control other times 2FB to 3B side had poor control one major mistake teixeira tagged him for a 3 run bomb

Joba in sabathia solid outing for the 1^st of the season Top 7

Joba FB at 90-91 MPH slider 85-86 MPH good movement

Joba flashes curveball 78 MPH missed high

1-2-3 for joba FB not stellar but off speed stuff looked good

phil coke into the game Bot 7

FB over the letter high over heart of the plate granderson hits a solo shot

Coke gets 1 out then done runner on 2B

Ryan perry in game wild pitch runner at 3B

Sac fly by jeter brings in martin

Soriano in Top 8

K looking for Cabrera

1-2-3 inning

dan schlereth in 1 on 1B no out

3 wild pitches by tigers pitching

rivera in Top 9

cutter sitting 89-91 MPH

granderson reading the ball great off the bat

less movement than in past years

Yankees retired 14 of last 15 hitters

Both pitchers struggled in their first start of the season but the stuff was there, they just need regain their control. The biggest worry for the Tigers is clearly going to be their bullpen, look for GM Dave Dombrowski to make a move early if this continues to be a problem. Joba's control wasn't quite there but his curveball and slider combination should allow him to be an acceptable piece even if his fastball is in the low 90's. Something for Yankee fans to keep and eye was Rivera's cutter, I know its sac religious in most baseball circles to question it but hear me out. The velocity was down to a career low, high 80's low 90's, this isn't a major issue in itself because of the Maddux-esk control Rivera has of the pitch. The most concerning thing was the decrease in movement. Rivera, like every other pitcher, has experienced a decrease in velocity over the last 5ish years of his career but he has continued to be an elite closer because of his outstanding control and movement of his one pitch. As the season goes on we could see and increase in velocity as he loosens up, but if his velocity and movement stay at the same level they were at during the season opener we could be witnessing the first signs of a mortal Mariano Rivera.

If you have any questions or requests send an email to strikeoneblog@gmail.com

Story Time

You've heard it before and as certain as death and taxes you'll hear it again; the Red Sox, with their new acquisitions, are the favorite to win the 2011 World Series. The upcoming season should be very entertaining to follow and while the Red Sox are a formidable team they're far from a sure thing. The 162 game season can get understandably monotonous, hopefully I'll be able to help prevent that, but following a few specific developments is the perfect way to stay interested and will also make you a smarter fan. With opening day a mere 10 days away, it seems like a good time to examine some intriguing story lines for the upcoming season.

The starting rotation should be a strength of this team but it's not without questions that could derail any championship aspirations. The most crucial part of the rotation is the emergence of either Josh Beckett or Daisuke Matsuzaka as a reliable fourth starter. The key to Beckett's success is and always has been, his curveball. When his curveball has tight spin and is being thrown for strikes Beckett can put the numbers he did in 2007, when he finished a close second to CC Sabathia in the Cy Young voting. Another important part of his success will be the effectiveness of his change-up. In the past his change-up been mostly for show, it had little movement and was typically 3-4 MPH slower that his fastball. During his last televised spring training start his change-up showed much better movement, down and in to right handed hitters, and roughly 6 MPH slower than his fastball. It was however inconsistent and it's worth keeping an eye on during the season because if he can maintain an league average change-up the Red Sox could have a 3rd 'ace' on their hands. Daisuke's last two spring training starts have been successful, he's attacked hitters and not been afraid to throw strikes. If either Daisuke or Beckett goes on the DL the 6th starter looks to be Alfredo Aceves, Felix Doubront (depending on how many innings he has when the need occurs) or Tim Wakefield. Wakefield will most likely be used as a spot starter as opposed to a long term solution if one of the starting 5 goes down. The final starting rotation story line regards Clay Buchholz. If Buchholz is going to make the final jump to becoming an 'ace' and living up to his off the charts potential he's going to have establish his curveball as a pitch batters have to expect in any count, in any situation.

What happens to the bullpen if Papelbon struggles? This will become a lightening rod for the Boston media, and rightfully so. First and foremost Francona and Theo will have to decide if they can keep Papelbon on the roster or if they should cut their losses as he may become a malcontent and distraction. Second, regardless of what becomes of Papelbon, they'll have to decide if they're going to go with Daniel Bard or Bobby Jenks as the new closer. Unless one of the two is vastly out preforming the other one they'll probably lean towards Bard unless the numbers dictate Jenks is the better option in a particular situation (a slightly modified version of the taboo 'closer by committee' theory).

Can Salty and Ellsbury continue to develop? Ellsbury's development was brought to a screeching halt last season after 5 broken ribs limited him to 18 games. The focus with Ellsbury is whether or not he will continue to develop as a hitter and fielder (ie. more walks, more power and better reads on balls in center field). Salty's development is more important because even if Ellsbury produces like he did in 2009 the Sox will be fine. When watching Salty the most important things to keep an eye out for is his ability to throw out runners, playing time (if he isn't meshing with the pitching staff we may see significant playing time for Varitek at the beginning of the season unless Salty is hitting the cover off the ball), and if he can maintain a batting average above .250 and an OBP(on-base percentage) around .315.

What will become of the Red Sox now depleted farm system? Theo currently holds 5 of the first 50 in an historically deep draft. Many experts believe that the top 20 players in the upcoming draft could all be top 10 picks in any other draft. It will be curious to see how Theo approaches this draft, will he target the more reliable college players or the high upside toolsy high schoolers? (For more information on this years college pitching prospects check out this great article by Ian Theodoridis of soxprospects.com) In last years draft he used his early picks on college players. In 2005, the most comparable draft in terms of talent depth, Theo used his first 4 picks on collegiate players. The development of last years draftees will be crucial to providing the big club with elite talent in the coming years. While the current system is down, from past years, there are a few players that could make waves this seaspn. Keep an eye on RHP Anthony Ranaudo as he could move quickly through the system and get a cup of coffee in Boston as early as the 2012 September call ups, and international signee 3B Xander Bogaerts who has similar offensive tools to Hanley Ramirez at the same age. Stolmy Pimentel has all the tools to be a frontline starter but he needs to harness his 'stuff' and work on his secondary pitches. During the season I'll touch on how certain prospects are doing but, if you want to follow the Red Sox minor league prospects during the season more closely check in on soxprospects.com where they'll have weekly updates and in-depth scouting reports on every player.

These story lines will play a major part in the short and long term success of the organization and I will provide updates on each of these at the quarterly marks of the season. If you have any questions or topic requests send me an email at strikeoneblog@gmail.com.

To Win, Or Not To Win. The Bullpen Is the Question.

The 2011 Boston Red Sox are in position to win their third World Series in Theo Epstein's tenure as GM. Let's not kid ourselves the Yankees are still a great threat to the Sox, maybe not in the regular season but they are still a very dangerous team in a 7 game series. A 7 game series will come down to who can slam the door late in games. The Yankees have Raphael Soriano and Mariano Rivera in the back end of their bull-pen, which makes them extremely dangerous with a lead. The Red Sox had one of the worst bull-pens in baseball last year. Acquiring reliable and productive bull-pen arms is the biggest crapshoot a GM faces when constructing his 40 man and 25 man rosters. Bull-pen pitchers can be hit or miss this for year to year which why the group Theo has put together will be the key to another World Series title.

In the past Francona has preferred to carry 12 pitchers on the active roster, which leaves 7 arms in the bull-pen. As it stands now the Red Sox have Papelbon, Bard, Jenks, Wheeler, Wakefield locked into 5 of the spots. Before I jump into who are the legitimate contenders for the final two spots it's important analyze what roles the current players fill. Papelbon, despite his struggles the last two years, will be the closer coming out of spring training and it's his job to lose. Papelbon's inability to dominate like he did earlier in his career stems from fluctuating mechanics that results in the loss of command of his pitches. While his fastball has always his clear-cut best pitch, it was his splitter that kept hitters honest and allowed him to have room for error with his fastball. Once his mechanics started to fall apart his splitter movement was the first thing to go. It no longer had that sharp dive and it became so inconsistent that he abandoned it altogether, his fastball speed dropped from 95-97 to 91-93 MPH and the movement decreased with it. Closers cannot be successful with a 91-93 MPH fastball that has little movement, and rarely thrown, ineffective, secondary pitches. Daniel Bard, the 8th inning closer waiting, will be setting up for Papelbon this year. Bard led all relievers last year with an average fastball velocity of 97.9 MPH that also had great movement. In addition to his great fastball, Bard also has a wipeout slider that has great two-plane break. His slider can be disappear from time to time so this season he'll have to work on its consistency to solidify his role as the closer for the 2012 season. On the off chance that Bard struggles this year (not likely but it's always a possibility) Bobby Jenks could slide into that role. Jenks had some struggles last year but he still has 'closer stuff' and a change of scenery (ie. moving as far from Ozzie Guillen as possible) could result in the Red Sox having the best 7th inning bull-pen arm in baseball. Dan Wheeler, who signed with the Sox after spending the last three seasons with the Tampa Bay Rays, will be a match up arm with and depending on who's more effective between him and Jenks will have 7th inning duties. Wakefield has been relegated to mop up duty and will get the occasional start but don't expect much from him in the way of meaning full innings or a high level of production.

The Red Sox are guaranteed to have at least one lefty in the bull-pen and at the moment they'll have to choose between Okajima, Rich Hill, Andrew Miller, Denny Reyes and Lenny DiNardo. The sample size is small for all of the relievers, but so far Okajima gave up 4 run in his first outing but he's since settled down and not allowed a run in his last 3 innings. Rich Hill, a local native from Milton, has changed his arm slot this spring from an over the top motion to a side arm slot, which changed his 12-6 curveball into a frisbee-esk slider. He has gotten solid reviews all spring, has not allowed a run and it looks like he has a real possibility of starting the year in the majors, but more than likely he'll start in AAA. Andrew Miller has been clocked as high as 99 MPH this spring and Francona and the coaching staff can't stop raving about his potential, but even so the Red Sox have been steadfast in saying he will start the year in AAA Pawtucket.  Denny Reyes has a shot and the reviews seem positive, and Lenny DiNardo doesn't appear to have a realistic chance to start the year in Boston, but instead will be insurance ready for the call in AAA. I did not include Felix Doubront in this list because with his most recent elbow stiffness there's no way he will be in competition for a spot out of spring training. I also believe that he will be stretched out to be a starter for insurance if Daisuke gets injured or is ineffective.

Baring any injuries the Red Sox should arrive in Texas with the following 12 pitchers: Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jonathan Papelbon, Daniel Bard, Bobby Jenks, Dan Wheeler, Tim Wakefield, Hideki Okajima and Denny Reyes. This gives Francona a great balance of power and finesse, righties and lefties, and a variety of different arm slots, all of which should provide him with the ability to slam the door on teams late in games.

Any questions or requests for specific analysis on players, games or anything else should be sent to strikeoneblog@gmail.com

Where's The Next Blue Chip Prospect?

When Theo Epstein took over as GM in 2002 he vowed to make the Red Sox a "player development machine," and leading up to the Adrian Gonzalez trade there has always been at least one elite prospect in the system.


2003: Jonathan Papelbon, RHP (4th round)
2004: Dustin Pedroia, 2B (2nd round)
2005: Jacoby Ellsbury, CF (1st round) and Clay Buchholz, RHP (1st supplemental round)
2008: Casey Kelly, RHP (1st round) and Ryan Westmoreland, CF (5th round)
2010: Anthony Ranaudo, RHP (1st supplemental round)


These draftees have all been considered 5 star prospects at one point during their minor league career with the exception of, right handed pitcher, Anthony Ranaudo who has yet to pitch a professional inning. I felt the need to include him on the list because of his prospect status going into his final year at LSU. He was considered the top pitching prospect in the 2010 draft after posting a 3.04 ERA in 124.1 innings with 159 strikeouts as a 19 year old sophomore. Elbow soreness delayed the start of his 2010 season and resulted in mechanical flaws and ineffectiveness throughout the whole season. In order to prove to the Red Sox he was healthy, and worthy of a 7 figure signing bonus, he pitched 29.2 innings in the Cape Cod league without allowing a run and striking out 31 batters. If Ranaudo can maintain his mechanics there's no reason why he won't be considered a five star prospect and one of the top 50 in all of baseball when next year's lists come out.


As we all know Casey Kelly was traded to the San Diego Padres in the Adrian Gonzalez deal and while there have been conflicting reports on whether he is a five star prospect, he is one of the top 50 prospects in baseball. This leaves one name left on the list that has both professional experience and has been named a elite prospect, Ryan Westmoreland. Ryan Westmoreland, a left handed hitting center fielder from Rhode Island, was taken in the 5th round of the 2008 amateur draft by the Red Sox and signed for $1.6 million. Most scouts, at the time of the draft, believed he had all the tools to become a super star at the major league level but were hesitant to anoint him an elite prospect because of the lesser competition he played against in the northeast. As soon as he stepped on the field as a professional the hesitation melted away and the projection for stardom became a widespread consensus. Going into last season Kevin Goldstein, an expert minor league prospect evaluator for Baseball Prospectus, had this to say about Westmoreland, "One scout described Westmoreland as having "the tools of a top-five high school pick, with the advanced skills of a college player." Supremely athletic, Westmoreland has average power with projection for more, as well as a keen understanding of the strike zone and a silky smooth swing with some natural lift to it. He's an outstanding runner with instincts, as indicated by his 19 stolen bases in 60 games for the Spinners without getting caught." During spring training last year, Westmoreland felt numbness in his right thumb and pinkie fingers informed Red Sox officials. He was immediately sent for testing where doctors discovered a cavernous malformation, which is a mass of abnormally formed blood vessels, in his brain stem. The mass had bled into his brain which caused the numbness and tingling in his fingers. Doctors decided that surgery was not necessary because the chance of another bleed was very low and location of the mass made any surgery life threatening. Within days the mass bled again, leaving Ryan almost completely deaf and blind and with debilitating handicaps. His parents decided that surgery was a must in order to give him a chance at having any quality of life. On March 16th, 2010 Ryan underwent successful surgery to remove the cavernous malformation in Arizona. In the months following the surgery, reports began filtering out giving fans of Westmoreland an insight into one of the most inspirational stories in since Lance Armstrong. Doctors continued to set goals and Ryan continued to blow past them with flying colors. While his vision hasn't completely returned, he still has to wear thick sunglasses while he takes batting practice outside. Physically he is in better shape than he was before the surgery, stronger and lower percent body fat, but he still has trouble with tasks requiring small motor skills such as tying his shoes. He continues to take batting practice three times a week as he slowly works his back to his dream of one day playing in Fenway Park. Whether or not he ever plays competitive baseball again is nothing more than a luxury for him, when you consider that less than a year ago he underwent a surgery in which his survival was far from a certainty.



With no prospects currently worthy of the 'elite' tag, the Red Sox minor league system is down from past years, but there is hope for the future. As a result of letting Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre leave through free agency, Theo has 5 picks in the first 50 and 6 in the first 85. The system should be fully restocked after the draft with high impact 'blue chip' prospects. Experts are in agreement that this will be one of the strongest drafts in recent memory, similar to the 2005 draft, here's a look at the first round of the 2005 MLB Draft. If there is anyone within the system that has a chance to develop into a 'blue chip' prospect, scouting reports say put your money on shortstop Xander Boegarts, the previously mentioned Anthony Ranaudo or right handed pitcher Stolmy Pimentel.


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Surplus of Riches

Before I jump into today's blog, I'm going to give you a bit of an overview of the direction I plan on taking the blog. Leading up to opening day I will continue posting 2-3 entries each week previewing different areas of the Sox on both the major league and minor league levels. Once the season starts I will be writing weekly entries recapping the Red Sox week with player profiles, chronicling and analyzing their successes and struggles of the past week. I will also write about any major transactions that involve or will affect the Sox. In addition to my weekly Red Sox post I will also be writing shorter entries throughout the week, about anything that catches my eye around the league including but not limited to; major milestones (both player and team), unique occurrences (perfect games, no hitters, etc.), top MLB prospect debuts, and anything that you the readers may want to hear about. If there is any subject, player or analysis that you like me to touch on please don't hesitate to email me at boysofsummerblog@gmail.com. Now on to the line-up...

Terry 'Tito' Francona is in a difficult yet envious position as he attempts to set the Red Sox line-up without over thinking it. Since the Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez acquisitions Francona has been steadfast in his belief, and in my opinion rightfully so, that the Red Sox line-up is at its most dangerous when Jacoby Ellsbury is hitting in the lead off position. The alternative would be having Ellsbury hit in the 9 hole. One of the strengths of the Sox current roster is the balance between speed and power, and having Ellsbury bat 9th negates a large portion of that balance. I'm sure you're currently asking yourself, 'Why does Ellsbury have to hit 9th or 1st instead of 7th or 8th?' A valid question, based off the fact that over the course of a season the leadoff hitter will average almost 2 more at-bats per game than the #9 hitter. Having Ellsbury hit 7th or 8th would obviously get him more at-bats but the problem with this is that it limits Ellsbury's speed even more because of the high OBP hitters directly in front of him aren't fleet of foot, Ortiz and J.D. Drew. Hitting Ellsbury in the 9-hole behind Scutaro and Salty means that there is a lower probability of someone being on base in front of him, which would allow him to steal his way into scoring position more often. However, none of these options benefit the Sox quite as much as having Ellsbury leadoff. Without further delay here is my 2011 Boston Red Sox batting order:

Ellsbury, CF (for the reasons stated above)
Pedroia, 2B (this is a given, he can steal 15-20 bases hit 15-20 HR and work the count)
Crawford, LF (he says he doesn't mind leading off but he's just playing nice because it's his first season with the team. Hitting 3rd will give him the opportunity to steal bases while also hitting for power given the protection he will receive from the clean up hitter)
Gonzalez, 1B (no brainer here the guy can flat out hit, he's the front runner for the AL MVP and with the three people hitting in front of him and the one behind him he should produce at a Pujols-esk level. only qualm here might be that there are back to back left handed hitters. Gonzalez hit .337 vs lefty pitchers last year so the Sox should be fine against lefties)
Youkilis, 3B (he'll give Gonzalez protection and continue to produce like a top 10 MVP candidate)
Ortiz, DH (slow start or not he should be fine in the long run and with the new acquisitions there's less pressure for him to produce right off the bat)
Scutaro, SS
Drew, RF
Salty, C
(the final 3 keep the right/left combination)

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The Curse of Nomahhhh

As promised this entry will be shorter than the last. I intentionally didn't touch on the shortstop position in my first post because I felt like it needed more than just a little blurb, and the last post was long enough as it was. The infamous 'Curse of Bambino' left the Red Sox without a World Series title for a heartbreaking 86 years. The 'Curse of Nomar' has left us without a competent defensive shortstop that can also hit well enough to play on a championship caliber team. Orlando Cabrera, Nomar's immediate successor, was the closest thing to a quality well rounded shortstop the Sox have had. Cabrera, by all accounts, was not a great teammate and Theo was not about to deal with another malcontent shortstop, a la Nomar for the final year plus of his contract. Cabrera was also looking for a long term contract and with blue chip prospect, Hanley Ramirez, waiting in the wings and better options in the free agent market, Theo wasn't looking to lock down a lesser shortstop for more than a year or two. As we all know Theo went out and signed Edgar Renteria to a 4 year $40 million deal. Renteria was known as an offensive oriented shortstop but with the ability to play at least average defense. A reported wrist injury sapped Renteria's bat speed and reported back and leg issues played a factor in his abysmal fielding (how much of a factor isn't known because the extent of the injuries were never completely disclosed). Rente-wreck, as the fans and media mockingly referred to him, was traded to the Atlanta Braves for prospect Andy Marte after just one season with the Red Sox.

On October 31st, 2005 Theo Epstein ended contract talks with the Boston Red Sox, later citing his displeasure when information of the negotiations was leaked to the media, and escaped the media at Fenway Park by hiding in a gorilla costume. This single event set off a chain reaction that made its presence felt over the next couple years, including another World Series in 2007 and a stretch of some of the worst shortstop play Sox fans have ever seen. Less than a month later, the GM by committee; Jed Hoyer, Ben Cherington, and Larry Luccino completed a trade for Josh Beckett and the soon to be 2007 World Series MVP, Mike Lowell, by sending Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez to the Florida Marlins. This blockbuster trade was made against the advice of Theo, who remained on as a consultant to the team, and left the Red Sox without a shortstop for the present of future. On January 24th, 2006 Larry Luccino and John Henry announced Theo's return as GM and his new responsibilities as Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations (essentially eliminating Luccino's influence in Baseball Operations).

A weak shortstop free agent class left little options for the 2006 season. Shortly after returning to his post as GM Theo signed Alex Gonzalez, an offensively challenged defensive wizard, to a 1 year contract. Gonzalez's defensive play in his only year with the Red Sox should've earned him a gold glove, but the voters gave the honor to defensively challenged Yankee shortstop, Derek Jeter. From 2007 - 2009 Red Sox fans had to suffer through the offensive and defensive ineptitude of Julio Lugo. The Lugo signing will probably go down as one of Theo's worst as a GM.

Going into the 2010 season Theo made 2 signings that would finally put an end to the revolving door at shortstop. The second signing (don't worry I'll get to the first one) was of free agent Marco Scutaro, who has just had a career year offensively with the Toronto Blue Jays. Scutaro epitomized one of Theo's cardinal beliefs for building a championship contender; be at least league average at every position. Scutaro is league average every facet of the game and his 2 year deal became a bridge to the future of the position.

The future of the shortstop position was solidified in September 2009 when the Red Sox signed Jose Iglesias, a 19 year old defensive magician who had recently defected from Cuba. Iglesias is a defense first short stop with enough of a bat to be a #8 or #9 hitter in the Sox line-up. To say Iglesias is a good defender doesn't do his talent justice, both Dustin Pedroia and Alex Rodriguez have said he is (present tense as in right now as a 21 year old) one of the best defensive shortstops they've ever seen. I'll be the first to admit I'm not a professional talent evaluator so I'll sum up Iglesias' defensive wizardry with the words of people far more qualified than I: "Watching Jose Iglesias take infield practice is like baseball porn." -ESPN's Keith Law via twitter, an anonymous scout described Iglesias' pre-game workouts to Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein as "the equivalent  of a live-action instructional video of everything a shortstop should do.", finally this is a link to a brief scouting report, with some video, done by MLB network MLB Top 50 Prospects: Jose Iglesias.

Since the glory days of Nomar Garciaparra, the Red Sox have not been able to find the shortstop that fits their team offensively and more importantly defensively. With the long term roster built the way it is Jose Iglesias looks to be a mainstay at the bottom of the line up, and more importantly in the field, at shortstop, where he should have no problem racking up multiple Gold Glove awards for years to come.

The Long Wait to April 1st

Ladies and gentlemen we are a mere 31 days from the start of the 2011 baseball season and Theo Epstein has once again put the Boston Red Sox in championship contention. Seeing as how this is my first of many blogs that I'll be doing about the Red Sox and MLB in general, I will be catching you up so to speak on where I am in my perception of all things Red Sox and baseball. As a result this will be far and away the longest blog I will be writing and for that I apologize in advance but it will get easier from here on out.

After a disappointing 2010 season that saw 3 of the first 4 members of the Red Sox line-up miss significant time due to injury, the Red Sox had one of the best off seasons in recent memory. The first two major decisions Theo had to make was whether or not to resign Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre or let them leave via free agency and collect the compensatory draft picks. We all know the type of year Beltre had, good defense and big time bat, but his long term reliability at big money was not worth the risk of him potentially not living up to his contract year numbers and becoming a financial burden for the next 6 years. Victor Martinez is a top 4 offensive catcher in the MLB right now. The deciding factor that prevented Theo from giving Martinez the long term contract he was looking for was is that he's an average defensive catcher on his good days. Giving a 32 year old underwhelming defensive catcher a long term contract, with the knowledge that he will have to be moved to either 1B or DH in 2 years, is the kind of handcuffing contract smart GMs avoid at all costs. 20 HRs a season is not the kind of power GMs and managers look for out of the DH position which is why Victor Martinez did not carry enough value to out weigh the 19th and 36th overall picks in the upcoming draft.

The losses of Martinez and Beltre left obvious holes at 3B and catcher. Catcher was filled within by one of Theo's long time man crushes, Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Salty has long been considered a good all around prospect with the potential for at least average all around skills. With the current line up the Sox only need Salty to hit about .250 with 12-15 HRs and throw out 28% to 32% of base stealers while playing roughly 130 games. Youkilis is clearly a capable defensive 3rd baseman with a great bat so 3B was easily filled leaving a pretty big gap at 1st. With no impact help ready in the minors and no middle of the order bats available in free agency the time was perfect for Theo to finally pull the trigger on a deal for Adrian Gonzalez. According to reports, the trade had been previously held up by Theo's unwillingness to include either Casey Kelly or Ryan Westmoreland (more on Westmoreland in a later blog). Casey Kelly appeared to struggle last year as the 2nd youngest player in AA (by a mere 3 days) but the numbers were deceptive. In the 2009-2010 off season Kelly added 15-20 lbs. of muscle (depending on which report you chose to believe). Adding that much muscle to a pitcher's body can result in a lack of coordination and thus a lack of control. Kelly added 3-4 MPH on his fastball and 'stuff' wise he was a much more talented pitcher but because of the extra muscle he basically had to re-learn how to pitch in his new body with his much improved pitches.

The Adrian Gonzalez Trade: The acquisition of Adrian Gonzalez was the focal point of the off season and the most important transaction to assuring the Red Sox will be a championship caliber for years to come. As I mentioned earlier the Adrian Gonzalez trade hinged on Theo's willing to include Casey Kelly in the deal. With Kelly's struggles at AA many GMs would've been hesitant to make him the cornerstone of a trade for a player of Gonzalez's caliber but thankfully for Red Sox fans Jed Hoyer is the Padres' GM. Hoyer is one of the young sabermetric inclined GMs that teams are fighting over each other in leu of older experienced GMs, and he also happens to be Theo's former assistant GM. It was originally hypothesized, and not without merit, that because of Hoyer's in depth knowledge of the Red Sox minor league system it would be difficult for both teams to complete a trade for a player of Gonzalez's immense talent. By the time it was all said and done Hoyer's knowledge of the Sox's system made the trade possible. Without his knowledge of what the Red Sox had planned for Casey Kelly's development, Hoyer may not have been sold on Kelly's talent and as a result asked for more prospects which may have killed the deal. Instead, the Sox traded Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo and Reymond Fuentes for Adrian Gonzalez. For those of who don't regularly follow the minor leagues and more specifically the prospects who play in them, you probably don't know who Anthony Rizzo and Reymond Fuentes are. Anthony Rizzo is 1B prospect who will play good defense and be a solid hitter with good power for his position. Prospect evaluators, such as the ones who run the fantastically in-depth and informative soxprospects.com and Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, don't see him as an elite major leaguer. Reymond Fuentes is a CF prospect in the mold of Jacoby Ellsbury, a singles hitter, with little power elite speed, good defense and a below average arm. So in conclusion the winner of the Adrian Gonzalez trade, at least at the moment, seems to be the Red Sox. They traded a pitching prospect with a ceiling as a #2 pitcher, a good but not great 1B prospect (who if they didn't include in the trade would've been blocked by Gonzalez) and an extremely raw (undeveloped) CF prospect who was roughly 4-5 years away form the majors and is far from a sure thing, and in exchange they received one of the 3 best hitters in all of baseball who will be a fixture in the middle of their line up for the next 8 seasons.

The Crawford Signing: The signing of Carl Crawford gave the Sox a much needed defensive upgraded in LF and solid production at the plate. Crawford should be batting in the 3 hole for the Sox and produce his usual 15-20 HRs, 45-55 stolen bases and a .300 batting average. Paying $20 million for a 'speed' guy will probably end up being an over pay over the life of the contract. Signing any player to a 7 year contract comes with built in risk but if Crawford fails to live up to the total value of the contract he still has enough talent to be a major contributor on a championship caliber team.

The Starting 5: As the old cliche goes, "Chicks dig the long ball but pitching wins championships," so with further ado the Boston Red Sox starting rotation: Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey, Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Lester has emerged as the 'ace' of the staff the last two years and shows no signs of slowing down. Innings, strikeouts, low ERA and a cancer survivor to boot. There's nothing I can say about Lester as a pitcher that hasn't already been said so I'll keep this short: Lester is a strong start to the season away from being anointed the honor of the being the best left hander in baseball and 2nd best overall to Doc Halladay (no shame in that). Next up the no-hit kid, Clay Buchholz. Those of you who know me know that I've been driving the Buchholz bandwagon since footage of his AA start made it to mainstream TV as a result of ESPN following the Roger Clemens' comeback to the Yankees (the opposing starter that game). After the last season and a half I can finally hold my head high thanks to Buchholz finally tapping into his limitless potential. Advanced metrics expect Buchholz to have a significant regression from last year based off low strikeout totals among other things. I completely agree that an ERA in the low 2s isn't realistic but I am more optimistic than many other people who expect him to have an ERA north of 3.50. First of all the defense that will be playing behind him this year should be much better than last year's, with addition of Carl Crawford and the return of Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury. While Buchholz's strikeout and walk rates were far from the stellar level that his ERA would lead you to believe there is hope in the future. I fully expect Buchholz's ERA to be under 3.40 with an increase in strikeouts and a decrease in walks. His ERA should go up because he was very fortunate in terms of how many balls that were put in play (discounting HRs) resulted in a hit or BABIP (batting average on balls in play). His strikeouts should go up because while he didn't have many last year, he was in the top 3 in getting opponent batters to swing and miss at his pitches. This means he is fully capable of striking out batters but he was playing it safe and going for weak contact last year and as his confidence grows his strikeouts will grow to. The major factor in gaining his confidence back, in going for the strikeout, will hinge on his ability to recapture the 'feel' for his over the top slow looping curveball. As he proves to the league he can hit the strike zone with all of his pitches, most importantly his curveball, batters will be more likely to chase pitches he throws out of the zone which should help decrease his walk rates. Now on to the Red Sox #3 pitcher, John Lackey. Lackey endured a lot of flak last year from fans and media alike for 'not living up to the contract' he signed. He finished with an ERA of 4.40 and his strikeouts and walks regressed from his career averages. While none of his stats would win him a Cy Young award, they were far from the deplorable numbers the media would've lead you to believe he had. Now that he has had the chance to adjust to the competition in the AL East after spending his whole career in the less competitive AL West, it is fair to conclude that his numbers should show improvement and he will be the best #3 starter in the AL. Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston's #4 and #5 starters respectively, both suffered through injuries and ineffectiveness when they did take mound. Beckett's peripherals from last year suggest that his ERA was much higher than his overall performance represented. If he can stay healthy and produce numbers slightly better than what Lackey did last year he will have given the Sox what they needed from him, even if he didn't fully earn the $18 million he's due for the 2011 season. On to Boston's most frustrating Japanese import, Daisuke Matsuzaka. As with Beckett, Daisuke needs to be healthy for the season and he'll have a chance to produce at level he did in 2008. Does Daisuke nibble around the strike zone too much? Yes. Does he walk too many batters and only buckle down and throw strikes after the bases are loaded? Yes. Is he an unproductive player incapable of contributing at high enough level to be considered a #3 starter on a championship caliber team? Absolutely not. When it comes down to it, like with all pitching staffs, health is going to be the #1 determinant on how successful this pitching staff is.

The ultimate success of the 2011 Boston Red Sox will be determined by bounce back and healthy seasons from Beckett, Daisuke, Youkilis, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Gonzalez as well as improvements from Lackey and the continued development of Buchholz, Ellsbury, Bard and Saltalamacchia. Well that and performance of the Phillies' starting rotation when they match up with the Red Sox in World Series.