To Win, Or Not To Win. The Bullpen Is the Question.

The 2011 Boston Red Sox are in position to win their third World Series in Theo Epstein's tenure as GM. Let's not kid ourselves the Yankees are still a great threat to the Sox, maybe not in the regular season but they are still a very dangerous team in a 7 game series. A 7 game series will come down to who can slam the door late in games. The Yankees have Raphael Soriano and Mariano Rivera in the back end of their bull-pen, which makes them extremely dangerous with a lead. The Red Sox had one of the worst bull-pens in baseball last year. Acquiring reliable and productive bull-pen arms is the biggest crapshoot a GM faces when constructing his 40 man and 25 man rosters. Bull-pen pitchers can be hit or miss this for year to year which why the group Theo has put together will be the key to another World Series title.

In the past Francona has preferred to carry 12 pitchers on the active roster, which leaves 7 arms in the bull-pen. As it stands now the Red Sox have Papelbon, Bard, Jenks, Wheeler, Wakefield locked into 5 of the spots. Before I jump into who are the legitimate contenders for the final two spots it's important analyze what roles the current players fill. Papelbon, despite his struggles the last two years, will be the closer coming out of spring training and it's his job to lose. Papelbon's inability to dominate like he did earlier in his career stems from fluctuating mechanics that results in the loss of command of his pitches. While his fastball has always his clear-cut best pitch, it was his splitter that kept hitters honest and allowed him to have room for error with his fastball. Once his mechanics started to fall apart his splitter movement was the first thing to go. It no longer had that sharp dive and it became so inconsistent that he abandoned it altogether, his fastball speed dropped from 95-97 to 91-93 MPH and the movement decreased with it. Closers cannot be successful with a 91-93 MPH fastball that has little movement, and rarely thrown, ineffective, secondary pitches. Daniel Bard, the 8th inning closer waiting, will be setting up for Papelbon this year. Bard led all relievers last year with an average fastball velocity of 97.9 MPH that also had great movement. In addition to his great fastball, Bard also has a wipeout slider that has great two-plane break. His slider can be disappear from time to time so this season he'll have to work on its consistency to solidify his role as the closer for the 2012 season. On the off chance that Bard struggles this year (not likely but it's always a possibility) Bobby Jenks could slide into that role. Jenks had some struggles last year but he still has 'closer stuff' and a change of scenery (ie. moving as far from Ozzie Guillen as possible) could result in the Red Sox having the best 7th inning bull-pen arm in baseball. Dan Wheeler, who signed with the Sox after spending the last three seasons with the Tampa Bay Rays, will be a match up arm with and depending on who's more effective between him and Jenks will have 7th inning duties. Wakefield has been relegated to mop up duty and will get the occasional start but don't expect much from him in the way of meaning full innings or a high level of production.

The Red Sox are guaranteed to have at least one lefty in the bull-pen and at the moment they'll have to choose between Okajima, Rich Hill, Andrew Miller, Denny Reyes and Lenny DiNardo. The sample size is small for all of the relievers, but so far Okajima gave up 4 run in his first outing but he's since settled down and not allowed a run in his last 3 innings. Rich Hill, a local native from Milton, has changed his arm slot this spring from an over the top motion to a side arm slot, which changed his 12-6 curveball into a frisbee-esk slider. He has gotten solid reviews all spring, has not allowed a run and it looks like he has a real possibility of starting the year in the majors, but more than likely he'll start in AAA. Andrew Miller has been clocked as high as 99 MPH this spring and Francona and the coaching staff can't stop raving about his potential, but even so the Red Sox have been steadfast in saying he will start the year in AAA Pawtucket.  Denny Reyes has a shot and the reviews seem positive, and Lenny DiNardo doesn't appear to have a realistic chance to start the year in Boston, but instead will be insurance ready for the call in AAA. I did not include Felix Doubront in this list because with his most recent elbow stiffness there's no way he will be in competition for a spot out of spring training. I also believe that he will be stretched out to be a starter for insurance if Daisuke gets injured or is ineffective.

Baring any injuries the Red Sox should arrive in Texas with the following 12 pitchers: Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jonathan Papelbon, Daniel Bard, Bobby Jenks, Dan Wheeler, Tim Wakefield, Hideki Okajima and Denny Reyes. This gives Francona a great balance of power and finesse, righties and lefties, and a variety of different arm slots, all of which should provide him with the ability to slam the door on teams late in games.

Any questions or requests for specific analysis on players, games or anything else should be sent to strikeoneblog@gmail.com