Story Time

You've heard it before and as certain as death and taxes you'll hear it again; the Red Sox, with their new acquisitions, are the favorite to win the 2011 World Series. The upcoming season should be very entertaining to follow and while the Red Sox are a formidable team they're far from a sure thing. The 162 game season can get understandably monotonous, hopefully I'll be able to help prevent that, but following a few specific developments is the perfect way to stay interested and will also make you a smarter fan. With opening day a mere 10 days away, it seems like a good time to examine some intriguing story lines for the upcoming season.

The starting rotation should be a strength of this team but it's not without questions that could derail any championship aspirations. The most crucial part of the rotation is the emergence of either Josh Beckett or Daisuke Matsuzaka as a reliable fourth starter. The key to Beckett's success is and always has been, his curveball. When his curveball has tight spin and is being thrown for strikes Beckett can put the numbers he did in 2007, when he finished a close second to CC Sabathia in the Cy Young voting. Another important part of his success will be the effectiveness of his change-up. In the past his change-up been mostly for show, it had little movement and was typically 3-4 MPH slower that his fastball. During his last televised spring training start his change-up showed much better movement, down and in to right handed hitters, and roughly 6 MPH slower than his fastball. It was however inconsistent and it's worth keeping an eye on during the season because if he can maintain an league average change-up the Red Sox could have a 3rd 'ace' on their hands. Daisuke's last two spring training starts have been successful, he's attacked hitters and not been afraid to throw strikes. If either Daisuke or Beckett goes on the DL the 6th starter looks to be Alfredo Aceves, Felix Doubront (depending on how many innings he has when the need occurs) or Tim Wakefield. Wakefield will most likely be used as a spot starter as opposed to a long term solution if one of the starting 5 goes down. The final starting rotation story line regards Clay Buchholz. If Buchholz is going to make the final jump to becoming an 'ace' and living up to his off the charts potential he's going to have establish his curveball as a pitch batters have to expect in any count, in any situation.

What happens to the bullpen if Papelbon struggles? This will become a lightening rod for the Boston media, and rightfully so. First and foremost Francona and Theo will have to decide if they can keep Papelbon on the roster or if they should cut their losses as he may become a malcontent and distraction. Second, regardless of what becomes of Papelbon, they'll have to decide if they're going to go with Daniel Bard or Bobby Jenks as the new closer. Unless one of the two is vastly out preforming the other one they'll probably lean towards Bard unless the numbers dictate Jenks is the better option in a particular situation (a slightly modified version of the taboo 'closer by committee' theory).

Can Salty and Ellsbury continue to develop? Ellsbury's development was brought to a screeching halt last season after 5 broken ribs limited him to 18 games. The focus with Ellsbury is whether or not he will continue to develop as a hitter and fielder (ie. more walks, more power and better reads on balls in center field). Salty's development is more important because even if Ellsbury produces like he did in 2009 the Sox will be fine. When watching Salty the most important things to keep an eye out for is his ability to throw out runners, playing time (if he isn't meshing with the pitching staff we may see significant playing time for Varitek at the beginning of the season unless Salty is hitting the cover off the ball), and if he can maintain a batting average above .250 and an OBP(on-base percentage) around .315.

What will become of the Red Sox now depleted farm system? Theo currently holds 5 of the first 50 in an historically deep draft. Many experts believe that the top 20 players in the upcoming draft could all be top 10 picks in any other draft. It will be curious to see how Theo approaches this draft, will he target the more reliable college players or the high upside toolsy high schoolers? (For more information on this years college pitching prospects check out this great article by Ian Theodoridis of soxprospects.com) In last years draft he used his early picks on college players. In 2005, the most comparable draft in terms of talent depth, Theo used his first 4 picks on collegiate players. The development of last years draftees will be crucial to providing the big club with elite talent in the coming years. While the current system is down, from past years, there are a few players that could make waves this seaspn. Keep an eye on RHP Anthony Ranaudo as he could move quickly through the system and get a cup of coffee in Boston as early as the 2012 September call ups, and international signee 3B Xander Bogaerts who has similar offensive tools to Hanley Ramirez at the same age. Stolmy Pimentel has all the tools to be a frontline starter but he needs to harness his 'stuff' and work on his secondary pitches. During the season I'll touch on how certain prospects are doing but, if you want to follow the Red Sox minor league prospects during the season more closely check in on soxprospects.com where they'll have weekly updates and in-depth scouting reports on every player.

These story lines will play a major part in the short and long term success of the organization and I will provide updates on each of these at the quarterly marks of the season. If you have any questions or topic requests send me an email at strikeoneblog@gmail.com.