Ladies and gentlemen we are a mere 31 days from the start of the 2011 baseball season and Theo Epstein has once again put the Boston Red Sox in championship contention. Seeing as how this is my first of many blogs that I'll be doing about the Red Sox and MLB in general, I will be catching you up so to speak on where I am in my perception of all things Red Sox and baseball. As a result this will be far and away the longest blog I will be writing and for that I apologize in advance but it will get easier from here on out.
After a disappointing 2010 season that saw 3 of the first 4 members of the Red Sox line-up miss significant time due to injury, the Red Sox had one of the best off seasons in recent memory. The first two major decisions Theo had to make was whether or not to resign Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre or let them leave via free agency and collect the compensatory draft picks. We all know the type of year Beltre had, good defense and big time bat, but his long term reliability at big money was not worth the risk of him potentially not living up to his contract year numbers and becoming a financial burden for the next 6 years. Victor Martinez is a top 4 offensive catcher in the MLB right now. The deciding factor that prevented Theo from giving Martinez the long term contract he was looking for was is that he's an average defensive catcher on his good days. Giving a 32 year old underwhelming defensive catcher a long term contract, with the knowledge that he will have to be moved to either 1B or DH in 2 years, is the kind of handcuffing contract smart GMs avoid at all costs. 20 HRs a season is not the kind of power GMs and managers look for out of the DH position which is why Victor Martinez did not carry enough value to out weigh the 19th and 36th overall picks in the upcoming draft.
The losses of Martinez and Beltre left obvious holes at 3B and catcher. Catcher was filled within by one of Theo's long time man crushes, Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Salty has long been considered a good all around prospect with the potential for at least average all around skills. With the current line up the Sox only need Salty to hit about .250 with 12-15 HRs and throw out 28% to 32% of base stealers while playing roughly 130 games. Youkilis is clearly a capable defensive 3rd baseman with a great bat so 3B was easily filled leaving a pretty big gap at 1st. With no impact help ready in the minors and no middle of the order bats available in free agency the time was perfect for Theo to finally pull the trigger on a deal for Adrian Gonzalez. According to reports, the trade had been previously held up by Theo's unwillingness to include either Casey Kelly or Ryan Westmoreland (more on Westmoreland in a later blog). Casey Kelly appeared to struggle last year as the 2nd youngest player in AA (by a mere 3 days) but the numbers were deceptive. In the 2009-2010 off season Kelly added 15-20 lbs. of muscle (depending on which report you chose to believe). Adding that much muscle to a pitcher's body can result in a lack of coordination and thus a lack of control. Kelly added 3-4 MPH on his fastball and 'stuff' wise he was a much more talented pitcher but because of the extra muscle he basically had to re-learn how to pitch in his new body with his much improved pitches.
The Adrian Gonzalez Trade: The acquisition of Adrian Gonzalez was the focal point of the off season and the most important transaction to assuring the Red Sox will be a championship caliber for years to come. As I mentioned earlier the Adrian Gonzalez trade hinged on Theo's willing to include Casey Kelly in the deal. With Kelly's struggles at AA many GMs would've been hesitant to make him the cornerstone of a trade for a player of Gonzalez's caliber but thankfully for Red Sox fans Jed Hoyer is the Padres' GM. Hoyer is one of the young sabermetric inclined GMs that teams are fighting over each other in leu of older experienced GMs, and he also happens to be Theo's former assistant GM. It was originally hypothesized, and not without merit, that because of Hoyer's in depth knowledge of the Red Sox minor league system it would be difficult for both teams to complete a trade for a player of Gonzalez's immense talent. By the time it was all said and done Hoyer's knowledge of the Sox's system made the trade possible. Without his knowledge of what the Red Sox had planned for Casey Kelly's development, Hoyer may not have been sold on Kelly's talent and as a result asked for more prospects which may have killed the deal. Instead, the Sox traded Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo and Reymond Fuentes for Adrian Gonzalez. For those of who don't regularly follow the minor leagues and more specifically the prospects who play in them, you probably don't know who Anthony Rizzo and Reymond Fuentes are. Anthony Rizzo is 1B prospect who will play good defense and be a solid hitter with good power for his position. Prospect evaluators, such as the ones who run the fantastically in-depth and informative soxprospects.com and Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, don't see him as an elite major leaguer. Reymond Fuentes is a CF prospect in the mold of Jacoby Ellsbury, a singles hitter, with little power elite speed, good defense and a below average arm. So in conclusion the winner of the Adrian Gonzalez trade, at least at the moment, seems to be the Red Sox. They traded a pitching prospect with a ceiling as a #2 pitcher, a good but not great 1B prospect (who if they didn't include in the trade would've been blocked by Gonzalez) and an extremely raw (undeveloped) CF prospect who was roughly 4-5 years away form the majors and is far from a sure thing, and in exchange they received one of the 3 best hitters in all of baseball who will be a fixture in the middle of their line up for the next 8 seasons.
The Crawford Signing: The signing of Carl Crawford gave the Sox a much needed defensive upgraded in LF and solid production at the plate. Crawford should be batting in the 3 hole for the Sox and produce his usual 15-20 HRs, 45-55 stolen bases and a .300 batting average. Paying $20 million for a 'speed' guy will probably end up being an over pay over the life of the contract. Signing any player to a 7 year contract comes with built in risk but if Crawford fails to live up to the total value of the contract he still has enough talent to be a major contributor on a championship caliber team.
The Starting 5: As the old cliche goes, "Chicks dig the long ball but pitching wins championships," so with further ado the Boston Red Sox starting rotation: Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey, Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Lester has emerged as the 'ace' of the staff the last two years and shows no signs of slowing down. Innings, strikeouts, low ERA and a cancer survivor to boot. There's nothing I can say about Lester as a pitcher that hasn't already been said so I'll keep this short: Lester is a strong start to the season away from being anointed the honor of the being the best left hander in baseball and 2nd best overall to Doc Halladay (no shame in that). Next up the no-hit kid, Clay Buchholz. Those of you who know me know that I've been driving the Buchholz bandwagon since footage of his AA start made it to mainstream TV as a result of ESPN following the Roger Clemens' comeback to the Yankees (the opposing starter that game). After the last season and a half I can finally hold my head high thanks to Buchholz finally tapping into his limitless potential. Advanced metrics expect Buchholz to have a significant regression from last year based off low strikeout totals among other things. I completely agree that an ERA in the low 2s isn't realistic but I am more optimistic than many other people who expect him to have an ERA north of 3.50. First of all the defense that will be playing behind him this year should be much better than last year's, with addition of Carl Crawford and the return of Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury. While Buchholz's strikeout and walk rates were far from the stellar level that his ERA would lead you to believe there is hope in the future. I fully expect Buchholz's ERA to be under 3.40 with an increase in strikeouts and a decrease in walks. His ERA should go up because he was very fortunate in terms of how many balls that were put in play (discounting HRs) resulted in a hit or BABIP (batting average on balls in play). His strikeouts should go up because while he didn't have many last year, he was in the top 3 in getting opponent batters to swing and miss at his pitches. This means he is fully capable of striking out batters but he was playing it safe and going for weak contact last year and as his confidence grows his strikeouts will grow to. The major factor in gaining his confidence back, in going for the strikeout, will hinge on his ability to recapture the 'feel' for his over the top slow looping curveball. As he proves to the league he can hit the strike zone with all of his pitches, most importantly his curveball, batters will be more likely to chase pitches he throws out of the zone which should help decrease his walk rates. Now on to the Red Sox #3 pitcher, John Lackey. Lackey endured a lot of flak last year from fans and media alike for 'not living up to the contract' he signed. He finished with an ERA of 4.40 and his strikeouts and walks regressed from his career averages. While none of his stats would win him a Cy Young award, they were far from the deplorable numbers the media would've lead you to believe he had. Now that he has had the chance to adjust to the competition in the AL East after spending his whole career in the less competitive AL West, it is fair to conclude that his numbers should show improvement and he will be the best #3 starter in the AL. Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston's #4 and #5 starters respectively, both suffered through injuries and ineffectiveness when they did take mound. Beckett's peripherals from last year suggest that his ERA was much higher than his overall performance represented. If he can stay healthy and produce numbers slightly better than what Lackey did last year he will have given the Sox what they needed from him, even if he didn't fully earn the $18 million he's due for the 2011 season. On to Boston's most frustrating Japanese import, Daisuke Matsuzaka. As with Beckett, Daisuke needs to be healthy for the season and he'll have a chance to produce at level he did in 2008. Does Daisuke nibble around the strike zone too much? Yes. Does he walk too many batters and only buckle down and throw strikes after the bases are loaded? Yes. Is he an unproductive player incapable of contributing at high enough level to be considered a #3 starter on a championship caliber team? Absolutely not. When it comes down to it, like with all pitching staffs, health is going to be the #1 determinant on how successful this pitching staff is.
The ultimate success of the 2011 Boston Red Sox will be determined by bounce back and healthy seasons from Beckett, Daisuke, Youkilis, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Gonzalez as well as improvements from Lackey and the continued development of Buchholz, Ellsbury, Bard and Saltalamacchia. Well that and performance of the Phillies' starting rotation when they match up with the Red Sox in World Series.
