That Creaking Sound

Does everyone hear that creaking sound? It's the frame on the Red Sox bandwagon bending as all the fans who were on the Zakim Bridge two weeks ago, after the Sox dropped the first 2 of a 3 game series to the Rays, jump back on. As we all know the Red Sox cancelled the 3rd game of the series roughly 4 hours before the first pitch was scheduled to be thrown. Yes you read that correctly 4 hours before the first pitch. Unless there the danger that fans might die it's standard procedure to postpone canceling the game as long as possible to get fans in the stadium to buy food and souvenirs. It was clear the Red Sox had no intention of playing the 3rd game, all they wanted to do was to have 2 days off (there was an off day before the start of the Toronto series) to get their heads right before they dug themselves a hole they couldn't get out of. Since the start of the Toronto series the Red Sox are 9-2 and the pitching staff hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in the last 5 games (1.53 ERA). Buchholz is the only starter that hasn't turned in a quality start (6 innings 3 runs or less) this season but that could very well change when he opens the series in Baltimore on Tuesday. We've now seen 15 combined shutout innings from Daisuke and Lackey which, given the way the common fan and the media view them, is nothing short of a miracle.

Carl Crawford finally hit his first homerun in a Red Sox uniform and the other struggling members of the offense seems to be slowly working their way back to respectability. Ellsbury hit .375 during the 4 game sweep of the Angels, Youkilis hit .333 and Salty has barely been playing recently. Pitching wins championships and the Red Sox made the decision that until Salty improves his game calling and gains the pitching staff's trust Varitek will continue to catch the majority of their games. If Salty can't gain the pitching staff's trust it won't be long before Theo starts scouring the trade market because at the moment there's no replacement ready in the minors.

Questions to keep an eye on over the next week:

1. Can Beckett, Daisuke and Lackey maintain their recent dominance or will they regress?
2. Can Carl Crawford build off the final Angels game and become the game changing offensive player the Red Sox paid for? Where will he hit in the order once he does?
3. How much playing time does Salty get and who is the starter?
4. Will Jed Lowrie continue to challenge the belief that he is in fact human?
5. Will Buchholz have a breakout start against the team he no hit back in '07?
6. How many more starts will Anthony Ranaudo have at Low A before he's promoted (.46 ERA, 29.2 IP, 23 Ks, 8 BB, 10 H, 1 HR)?

The Right Direction

The second time through the rotation showed us two great starts two bad ones and then the massive dumb by Daisuke that Fenway cleaning crew is still cleaning up. After their 0-5 start the Red Sox turned to their ace, Jon Lester, to stop the skid and hopefully break his trend of poor pitching in April in the rubber match versus the Indians. Well all know Cleveland is a terrible team (more proof that analyzing a team's record before the first 40 games of the season is a waste of time and energy) and Lester finally made their offense live up that reputation tossing 7 shutout innings with 9 Ks. His fastball velocity was still 91-93 instead of the 94-96 we're used to seeing, but it's still early in the season and over his next couple starts we should see an increase as his he gets his arm strength back. Unfortunately for Lester the offense continued to struggle and the Red Sox went back to Boston to start a 3 game series with an 0-6 record.

Lackey's box score wasn't good and he'll need to improve his command but in a hitter friendly park, such as Fenway, against an offensive team like the Yankees, 5 innings 6 runs and 2 Ks isn't the worst thing that can happen. Don't get me wrong Lackey has struggled mightily with his command this year and his 91MPH fastball may wind up being in the high 80s by the end of his contract. The offense finally showed up and knocked Phil Hughes around for 5 runs in the 2nd inning alone. Hughes struggled with his velocity and command during spring training and it has clearly carried over to the regular season. His fastball velocity is currently at 86-88 MPH. Hughes has a a good curveball and solid change up but they become moot when his fastball is slow and hittable. Jenks, Bard and Papelbon came in and preformed up to their potential and slammed the door to get the Red Sox first win of the season. Papelbon was once again lights out throwing hit fastball at 94-95, his splitter at 87-90 and his slider at 82-84 all with great control. If he continues to throw like he has in his first 3 outings he will solidify himself as a type A free agent and will net the Red Sox a first round pick and a supplemental first round pick in the 2012 draft.

Buchholz went into his second start looking to achieve what Lester did against the Indians, break his trend of struggling in April. Unfortunately he wasn't successful and he struggled in 3.2 innings,  4 earned runs, 2 Ks and gave up another homerun. Buchholz has already given up 5 homeruns compared to the 9 he gave up all of last season. Right now his fastball velocity is similar to Lester's, he's sitting 91-93 when he's usually at 94-96. Throughout Buchholz's career he has gotten stronger as the season has gone on and his velocity as increased simultaneously. Ivan Nova controlled the Red Sox line up and worked his way out of trouble as the Red Sox struggled to push runners across the plate. On sunday the Red Sox announced that Buchholz signed a 4 year $30M contract with two club options. Once again Theo has locked up a young talented player to a team friendly deal with a club option at the end. This is the first time there has been 2 club options. The deal is very similar to to the one Lester signed before last year and with good reason. If you compare the two players at same point in their career when they signed their respective contracts they are almost exactly the same. K/9, BB/9, IP, HR/9, FIP (pitching stat that only factors in what a pitcher can control HRs walks Ks per inning pitched) are extremely similar while Buchholz has a noticeably better BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and a slightly better ERA.

In the rubber match Beckett matched up against Yankees' ace CC Sabathia and Beckett stole the show. Beckett struck out 10 Yankees over 8 shutout innings. This is the Beckett that Theo signed to a four year $68M deal at the beginning of last season. If Beckett can return to his 2007 form, like he did on Sunday, the Red Sox will be able to go toe to toe with the Phillies if both teams meet in the World Series. The offense was good but not great on Sunday they left a lot of runners on base and in scoring position and failed put a nail in the Yankees coffin early. The amount of runners LOB (left on base) has been a topic of discussion amongst Red Sox fans recently and it's not without merit but its being blown out of proportion. The Red Sox will always leave a lot of runners on base because they are one of the best teams at getting on base, a better representation of their success with runners on base is how many runners they drive in per baserunner. More great stuff from Papelbon he's prime for a 40+ save season.

I won't waste much time on Daisuke's start against the Rays, he was flat out terrible. He left all his pitches up in the zone and right over the plate. After games like this you need to chalk it up a bad start and move on to the next one. The one thing this does bring up is whether or not Theo is will to trade Daisuke and will Daisuke waive his no trade clause. I for one don't believe this will happen because if Daisuke is traded the Red Sox won't get a starter of equal or greater value do they will need to dip into their starting depth, Doubront Aceves or Wakefield which means if one more starter goes down the Red Sox could be in much more trouble than with Daisuke on the mound.

Any and all questions or request should be sent to strikeoneblog@gmail.com or on twitter @strikeoneblog.

Worst Case Scenario

Alright folks the worst case scenario has happened. The Red Sox are 0-5 after being swept by Texas in the opening series then dropping the first 2 games to Cleveland. I was planning on waiting until there was something positive to write about but we've gone through the rotation once so now seems like as good a time as any. First and foremost everyone take a deep breath and count to ten (which is not the same as ten deep breaths Farva) then slowly step back off the ledge of the Zakim Bridge and go home.

Lester and Lackey continued their April struggles in their respective first starts. For the first time since 4/8/2008, against the Tigers, Lester failed to record a strikeout. He fastball was sitting in the low 90s instead of his normal 94-96. His stuff wasn't sharp and his location was sporadic, a recipe for ineffectiveness. As you'll notice throughout this article there will be a running theme of 'he just didn't play well'. Same goes for Lackey, his velocity was down and his location was off, his cut fastball down the middle of the plate on Nelson Cruz's homerun sums up his outting pretty well. He was also on the hook for a lot more pitches and runs after Ellsbury failed to catch the line drive in right center, which didn't help. Buchholz had arguably the best start out of any of the pitchers. He went into the 7th inning and only gave up 5 hits, 4 of which were solo homeruns. As I said in my first post, Long Wait To April 1st, Buchholz's ability to become a true shutdown ace, and one of the best pitchers in the MLB, was going to hinge on whether or not he could regain the feel for his elite curveball and dominate with it. Throughout his start Buchholz showed a willingness throw his curveball in many different counts and for strikes, a sign of good things to come. Beckett was far from stellar but was probably the third best starter the Red Sox have had so far. His change-up was the best we've seen since when he made a run at the Cy Young in 2007. Beckett's stuff was much better than we've seen in recent years and, like every other pitcher on our staff, if he can improve his control he should be a perfectly suitable starter. Daisuke was the same frustrating pitcher we've all gotten used to over the past couple seasons for the first 2+ innings. Then it seemed like he settled down and started to pitch to contact a bit more. If it weren't for the botched double play by Varitek, who should've tagged the running because the force out was not in play, Daisuke may have made it into the 6th inning. The bullpen has been hit or miss depending on the night and pitcher, but Papelbon has shown a much improved willingness to throw his slider and splitter in any count.

The hitters have just been flat out awful. They haven't worked the count, made smart base running decisions or punished opposing pitchers for making mistakes. Adrian Gonzalez has looked the best of all hitters so far. He has shown the power and ability to hit to all fields while also working deep into the count but even he has preformed below his talent. Their biggest problem is that they're pressing too much and they have no command of the strike zone. If the hitters are going to break out their slump they need to settle down, start working the count and get the starter out of the game early.

Through the first 5 games of the season the Red Sox have played horribly, there's no denying that. The fortunate part is that this team is not Houston Astros, the Red Sox are way too talented to not break out this and establish themselves as a force to be reckoned with. While on WEEI's Dennis and Callahan show this morning Curt Schilling said "I still believe they are going to be a good team, but they don't have a common foe, and pretty soon it's going to be getting booed on Opening Day, or the media just basically saying these guys suck, and they're going to have a 'let's circle the wagons to spite these guys' and  they don't have that." I couldn't have said it better and that common enemy will be arriving in Boston early tomorrow morning in the form of the New York Yankees. This is a team of proud, talented and confident players and doubting them could prove to be the waking of the sleeping giant.

Things to watch during the Yankee series:

• Buchholz's use of his curveball. How sharp does it look? Is he leaving it up in the zone? Can he throw strikes with it? Is he throwing in any count or only when he's ahead?
• Lackey. Can he through the Yankees line up enough times to not decimate the bullpen (ie. 6+ innings)?
• Beckett. See Lackey.
• Can the bullpen hold leads and shut the door in the 9th inning?
• Will the hitters show patience at the plate and knock the Yankees starters out early in the game?

Any questions and topic requests should be sent to strikeoneblog@gmail.com

Game Notes: Tigers @ Yankees 3/31

As I promised I will touch on other teams during the season so this is the first installment of the 'Game Notes' series. The format is subject to change but this seemed like a logical place to start; a running list of notes of observations followed by a wrap up. Without further ado...

Nice diving catch by granderson on rhymes Top 1

1-2-3 for sabathia stuff looks good FB sitting at 94 MPH

Verlander K on 96 FB sitting at 94-95 MPH Bot 1

Nasty hook to jeter 78 MPH strike looking

Slider 84 MPH misses

84 MPH change up / splitter looks like a 2 seamer

verlander 2 seamer movement is disgusting

walks arod missing strike zone to 3B on 2FB

better control to 1B side tailing back into the strike zone

Miguel Cabrera continues to hit sabathia Top 2

Jeter’s defense continues to underwhelm

Sabathia’s making mistakes but is staying low in the zone limiting the opportunity for extra base hits

Sabathia misses high sac fly scores run

Bases loaded no out sabathia only allows one run (sac fly to CF line out to 2B and K)

Verlander relying heavily on change up vs LHH so far so good Bot 2

Sabathia cruising 2 more Ks Top 3

Great sack bunt by gardner Bot 3

Granderson’s at bat song is ‘Friday’

Verlander’s control not there right now

Letter high FB over heart of the plate leads to Teixiera 3 run bomb

Inge rbi single sabathia missed inside Top 4

Sabathia battles back for the K with runner one 3B

Great diving catch by rayburn to rob martin of a hit in shallow left center Bot 5

Verlander curveball dialed in great movement and hitting the strike zone

Nice 2B by igne pulled his hands in and drove it into the gap Top 6

Arod broke up a streak of 9 straight by verlander who missed with a fastball high Bot 6

Verlander done 114 pitches looked great at times poor control other times 2FB to 3B side had poor control one major mistake teixeira tagged him for a 3 run bomb

Joba in sabathia solid outing for the 1^st of the season Top 7

Joba FB at 90-91 MPH slider 85-86 MPH good movement

Joba flashes curveball 78 MPH missed high

1-2-3 for joba FB not stellar but off speed stuff looked good

phil coke into the game Bot 7

FB over the letter high over heart of the plate granderson hits a solo shot

Coke gets 1 out then done runner on 2B

Ryan perry in game wild pitch runner at 3B

Sac fly by jeter brings in martin

Soriano in Top 8

K looking for Cabrera

1-2-3 inning

dan schlereth in 1 on 1B no out

3 wild pitches by tigers pitching

rivera in Top 9

cutter sitting 89-91 MPH

granderson reading the ball great off the bat

less movement than in past years

Yankees retired 14 of last 15 hitters

Both pitchers struggled in their first start of the season but the stuff was there, they just need regain their control. The biggest worry for the Tigers is clearly going to be their bullpen, look for GM Dave Dombrowski to make a move early if this continues to be a problem. Joba's control wasn't quite there but his curveball and slider combination should allow him to be an acceptable piece even if his fastball is in the low 90's. Something for Yankee fans to keep and eye was Rivera's cutter, I know its sac religious in most baseball circles to question it but hear me out. The velocity was down to a career low, high 80's low 90's, this isn't a major issue in itself because of the Maddux-esk control Rivera has of the pitch. The most concerning thing was the decrease in movement. Rivera, like every other pitcher, has experienced a decrease in velocity over the last 5ish years of his career but he has continued to be an elite closer because of his outstanding control and movement of his one pitch. As the season goes on we could see and increase in velocity as he loosens up, but if his velocity and movement stay at the same level they were at during the season opener we could be witnessing the first signs of a mortal Mariano Rivera.

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