Jon Lester is still the de-facto 'ace' of the staff. I say de-facto because because there's only only a handful of true number one, elite pitchers right now (in terms of pure stuff and reliable dominance): Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Cliff Lee, Jered Weaver and Cole Hamels. The next tier of guys (can put up the numbers of a true ace on any given year but it's not the norm for them) primarily consists of: Jon Lester, CC Sabathia, Matt Cain, Adam Wainwright, James Sheilds and Steven Strasburg if he's healthly. That being said Lester should have his standard season 200 IP, ERA in the low 3s and about 8 K/IP. Those stats shouldn't be understated because there is something to be said for a good reliable start every fifth day.
Josh Beckett, the apparent ring leader of the chicken and beer crew, needs to have a big season if the Sox plan on making any kind of late season run. By the end of 2011 he was fat and out of shape. For Beckett to have a big season he needs to be in shape and in order to be in shape he needs someone to ride his ass all season. Enter Bobby Valentine. Bobby V and Beckett's relationship will be dissected all season and will probably go one of two ways: Beckett will buy in and put together a good season and they'll live happily ever after or Beckett will butt heads with Bobby V the clubhouse will be dragged down and Ben Cherrington will have a much higher draft pick in 2013 than he was hoping for. Let's all hope that Beckett isn't as stubborn and childish as most of us think he might be.
Clay Buchholz lost his 2011 season to yet another misdiagnoses by the medical staff (see Ellsbury, Jacoby 2010), who have since been replaced, with multiple stress fractures in his back. While his numbers regressed from 2.33 ERA he had in 2010 before the injury he was getting better with every start showing improvement in both K/9 and BB/9. There are major questions marks following Buchholz in the rotation which is why I'm going to give Buchholz rotation's make or break tag. Yes Beckett will need to be good if the Sox plan on doing damage in October but with the improvements of the AL (Pujols to the Angles and Fielder to the Tigers) the Red Sox need a true ace and Buchholz is the only one who has the 'stuff' to become one. Buchholz has a plus fastball, plus cutter, plus to plus plus curveball, a fringy rarely used slider and a wipeout plus plus circle change that is as good as any in the game. If Buchholz can put together a 32 start 190+ innings and 7.5K/9 he won't be a true ace just yet but with the quality of his stuff his peripheral numbers should be 'ace-like'. If he can stay healthy for a full season this could be the season we see the first true ace since Pedro (take a deep breath I'm not saying Buchholz is as good as Pedro). On to the black hole...
The forth and fifth starters right now are a mess. Spring training will be the ultimate decider but right now the candidates are as follows: Alfredo Aceves, Andrew Miller, Felix Doubront, Stolmy Pimentel, Junichi Tazawa and Daisuke Matsuzaka after the all star break when he returns from Tommy John surgery (Daniel Bard will be in the bullpen this season and will be covered in the next post). This is a patch work group at best. For this group to have success the offense is going to have to carry them. Getting a collective ERA from this group in the low 5s should be the goal due to their lack of overall talent and their past results.
As it stands now the starting pitching is loaded with questions with only one reliable pitcher, Jon Lester. If Beckett and Buchholz can't preform up to their abilities this team is doomed to mediocrity.
Part Three: The Bullpen i
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