Wednesday, March 21, 2012

The Traveling Bard

To start or not to start? It's an easy question to answer with respect to Daniel Bard; KEEP HIM IN THE BULLPEN! Moving young players from the bullpen to the rotation is sketchy business as is but in Bard's case it could be disastrous. We all saw this first hand with Joba Chamberlain. As you all remember Joba came up with the Yankees in 2007 and dominated out of the bullpen, then the 'Joba Rules' kicked in. The Yankees attempted to protect his arm by having him begin the season as a starter then move him to the bullpen to limit his innings. In 2008 it was successful but since then the wheels have fallen off. Joba has struggled with consistency, overall effectiveness and injuries since then. All of these issues can be attributed either directly or indirectly to his fluctuating innings totals and his change in role. It's been well documented that Bard struggled greatly in his final season as a starter while he was in the minors; 6.42 ERA, 61.2 IP, 55 HITS, 56 BB, 38 Ks. For those of you who aren't partial to statistics those numbers make Lackey's 2011 season look palatable and Bard did that in A ball not the majors.
After that horrendous season the Red Sox organization lowered his arm slot slightly and transitioned him to the bullpen where he has flourished at every level. Bard has never had great control, before or after his mechanics were altered. Minor control problems in the bullpen turn into huge ones in the rotation, walks lead to runs, runs lead to long innings which leads to short outings which leaves you with a depleted and vulnerable bullpen. Daisuke round 2 anyone? Bard is most valuable to the Red Sox as Andrew Bailey's set up man with Mark Melancon. Bard was clearly overworked and burnt out last September, Melancon will be the perfect complement to him as a 7th inning guy and set up man when he needs a night off. The bullpen, baring injuries, should be one of the best in the AL with Bard but without him the quality depth could become a major flaw of this team.
The original idea for Bard to become a starter came from Lucchino, not Cherrington, not Epstein, not someone in baseball operations, it came from a businessman, that alone should be an indicator on why it's bad idea. You all know I'm one to tell you "I told you so" as I did with calling out A-Gon early last summer, so when Bard winds up in bullpen either before the season starts or for the second half after he bombs in the rotation expect another "I told you so."

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